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Daily Report: Aussie Jumps on CPI and Stocks, UK GDP, FOMC WatchedAustralian dollar jumps to another new record high against US dollar today on the back of strong inflation reading and risk appetite. CPI accelerated to 3.3% yoy in Q1, above RBA's target of 2-3% and well above expectation of 3.0% yoy. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI also accelerated to 2.3% yoy but the Weighted Median CPI dropped to 2.2% yoy, both were above expectation of 2.1% yoy though. RBA's tightening cycle stopped last November and rates has been kept at 4.75% since then. Economists are saying that RBA would start to worry that the it's the beginning of a new upward inflationary spike even though Treasurer Wayne Swan played down the significance and said jump in inflation is "unsurprising" and was caused by "summer floods and Cyclone Yasi". Markets are pricing in full 25bps hike in the next 12 months and focus will turn to upcoming employment data as well as June inflation reading. AUD/USD is set to set to take on 1.1 psychological level next which GBP/AUD will revisit record low of 1.5137 in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0705; (P) 1.0749; (R1) 1.0820; More AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.0850 so far today, inch below mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0675 support holds and sustained trading above 1.0857 will target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, though, below 1.0675 will indicate that a short term top is formed after hitting a projection target and should bring pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone first. |
| Special Reports |
Bernanke To Re-shape Thinking At The First FOMC Press BriefingThe April FOMC meeting will unlikely contain any surprise in monetary policies, i.e. the Fed funds rate will stay a 0-0.25% and the asset-buying program will be maintained at $600B with expiry in June. The focus is on the first post-meeting press briefing at which Chairman Ben Bernanke will attempt to shape market expectations on inflation and monetary outlook. The briefings will be held 4 times a year and are scheduled to coincide with the updates of economic forecasts. RBNZ To Stand Aside After Cutting In MarchThe RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged, after cutting it by -50 bps to 2.5% last month, at the April meeting. Economic indicators appeared to have gradually recovered from the earthquake in February. Yet, more evidence in coming months is needed to prove the situation has improved. Meanwhile, benign underlying inflation also bought time for the central bank to take a wait-and-see approach and leave the monetary stance unchanged. Governor Alan Bollard will also clarify his comments made last week on exchange rates. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8705Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.8671, as the greenback has rebounded quickly from there, suggesting a temporary low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 0.8805/10 but break of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.8824-25) is needed to confirm, bring retracement of recent decline towards yesterday's high at 0.8852 later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD –Exit long entered at 1.6440Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.6523, as the British pound has retreated after failing to break yesterday's high at 1.6533, suggesting further consolidation would take place but only break of yesterday's low at 1.6432 would signal top has been formed earlier at 1.6600, bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.6415/20 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6232 to 1.6600) but reckon 1.6385/90 would hold, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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