Action Insight Weekly Report 3-27-11

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Extended Recovery in Risk Appetite Sent AUD/USD to New Record High, Euro Firm on Rate Expectations

Risk appetite was strong last week in spite of continuous negative news out of Eurozone. The strength was clearly reflected in extended rebound in global equities as well as rally in commodities. In the foreign exchange market, risk sentiment was manifested in the clear strength in Aussie and Kiwi and the weakness in swiss franc as well as dollar. Among European majors, euro was the biggest winner as rate expectations remained firm. Meanwhile, support to Sterling faded after markets cooled down from overshoot rate expectations. In summary, S&P 500 close 1313.80 last week, 5.1% above post Japan earthquake spike low of 1249.05. CRB commodity index closed at 359.97, 6.7% above equivalent low of 337.44. Gold made new record high of 1448.6 while crude oil is back pressing 106.95 near term high. Dollar index dipped to as low as 75.52 before recovering while AUD/USD made new record high just shy of 1.03 level. Near term sentiments would likely continue to support Aussie and Euro, but the greenback could have a chance to rebound against Swissy, Sterling and possibly the Canadian dollar too.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD's rise from 0.9704 extended further to new record high of 1.0293 last week and resumed long term up trend. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for upper channel resistance at 1.0382 next. On the downside, below 1.0154 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 0.9704 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep retreat.

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