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Mid-Day Report: NFP +192k, Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.9%, USD/JPY JumpsNon farm payroll report showed 192k expansion in the US job market in February, slightly above expectation while prior month's figure was revised up from 36k to 63k. The surprise was in unemployment rate, which dropped to 8.9%, the lowest level since April 2009 while markets expected a rise to 9.1%. Looking into the details, private payroll rose 222k, up from 145k of prior two month's average. Average hourly earnings rose slightly by $0.01 to $22.87 while average work week held at 34.2 hours. While the data was solid, it's believed that more consistently strong data is needed before Fed would consider stimulus exit. Some economists believe that an excess of 200k job growths for a few months and a drastic decline in unemployment rate would be seen before Fed withdraw from the quantitative easing program. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 81.93; (P) 82.23; (R1) 82.73; More. USD/JPY jumps further to as high as 83.02 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 83.96 resistance. As noted before, consolidation from 80.29 is still in progress with rise from 81.57 as another leg. Hence, strong resistance is expected at 83.96 to limit upside. ON the downside, below 82.31 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 81.57 and break will target 80.93/81.12 support zone. |
| Featured Technical Report |
Trichet Signals Tightening Begin Next MonthWhile the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% at the March meeting, it will likely begin tightening next month as signaled by President Trichet. Staff projections on growth and inflation were revised higher in this year and next. The Euro rallied to almost a 4-month high against the US dollar amid rate hike speculations. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a message to the market that the Fed will keep QE2 until expiry and does not rule to further easing. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9210Although dollar's retreat after intra-day marginal rise to 0.9332 suggests consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen for retracement to 0.9249-52 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9202 to 0.9332), this week's low at 0.9202 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance at 0.9332 would bring another leg of corrective upmove for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9350/55 Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9890This week's sideways trading after falling to 0.9684 is expected to continue and above minor resistance at 0.9777 would bring retracement to 0.9830/40, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 0.9902 and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9684 would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9650 and possibly 0.9600 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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