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Daily Report: Sterling Firm as Markets Await Inflation DataSterling is firm and pressing recent high of 1.6343 against dollar as markets await inflation data from UK. Markets expect CPI to jump further away from BoE's target to 4.2% yoy in February while core CPI is also expected to climb to 3.1% yoy. This will be more than double of BoE's target of 2%. Currently, markets are expecting BoE to raise rates from the record low of 0.5% as early as in May, with full pricing of hike before August but this is far much less certain that ECB's April rate hike expectation. Today's CPI data and tomorrow's BoE minutes will be important in rate expectation and thus the outlook in pound in near term. In particular, these two events will decide whether GBP/USD could break through 1.6343 decisively and whether EUR/GBP could reverse from the current trend line resistance level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6232; (P) 1.6279; (R1) 1.6356; More. GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6326 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.6343 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next. On the downside, below 1.6203 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 1.6343. But after all, downside should be contained by 1.5962 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5343 to 1.6343 at 1.5961) and bring rebound. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9080Although dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue, reckon resistance at 0.9090 would limit upside and bring another retreat to minor support at 0.8988, break there would suggest the correction from recent low at 0.8853 has ended at 0.9090 last week but break of indicated support at 0.8959 is needed to confirm resumption of downtrend, bring weakness to 0.8900/10 later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6230As the British pound has eased after rising to 1.6328 yesterday, minor consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6269) is likely, however, reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around 1.6225/30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6060 to 1.6328) and bring another upmove towards previous resistance at 1.6344 but weakening of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 1.6390/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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