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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Reverses as Focus Shifts Back to MENADollar weakens across the board again on news that Libya Muammar Qaddafi stepped up the attack with air and artillery strikes to stop rebel advance along the coast. Also, a high ranking Libyan military official went to Cairo carrying a message. Canadian dollar jumps to new three year high against the greenback on anticipation of further rally in crude oil out of geopolitical tensions. In addition, Euro is up against dollar on reports that ECB will buy bonds again after yields on Portuguese debt jumped to a record high of 7.6%. Sterling, on the other hand is supported by data that showed narrowing trade deficit. Yen and Swissy recover on risk aversion. |
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USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9286; (P) 0.9325; (R1) 0.9388; More. US/CHF's sharp fall suggests that choppy recovery from 0.9201 has completed with three waves up to 0.9368. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 0.9201 support first. Decisive break there will confirm that USD/CHF's fall from 0.9774 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target. On the upside, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9774 to 0.9201 at 0.9420 and bring fall resumption. |
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BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged In March, Pressures Of Tightening Increased ThoughThe BOE will very likely leave the Bank unchanged at 1% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound at the March meeting. While the decisions will be the same as previous months, the economic backdrops have changed a lot. Recent rally in oil prices has increase global inflationary pressures and the ECB said last week that it may raise interest rates in April. Facing the same price pressures, the market has speculated the BOE will begin tightening in as soon as June. RBNZ To Cut In March In An Attempt To Restore ConfidenceThe RBNZ will very likely reduce its OCR from 3% at the March meeting. We expect a cut of -25 bps is appropriate though policymakers will state further easing cannot be ruled out depending on how economic data evolve. Prime Minister revealed his preference on a rate cut as the earthquake in Christchurch on February 22 will trim the country's economic growth this year. The market has fully priced in a -25 bps cut and bets for a -50 bps cut have been rising. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6285Cable's intra-day anticipated rebound has retained our view that consolidation above yesterday's low at 1.6125 would take place and retracement to 1.6253/59 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6342 to 1.6125) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6285/90 and bring another decline later. A break of intra-day low at 1.6142 would signal rebound from 1.6125 has ended Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 82.75As the greenback has finally retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 82.94, retaining our view of further consolidation would take place and mild downside bias remains for another retreat to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 82.50), then test of the lower Kumo (now at 82.30), break there would signal the rebound from 81.95 has ended and bring another test of this level. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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