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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rebound as Focus Turns Back to European DebtsDollar rebounds further in early US session as markets' focus once again turned back to Eurozone debt crisis. Greece managed to sell EUR 1.625b of 26-week bills today with yield at 4.75%, up from prior 4.64%. Demand was also weaker with bid-to-cover ratio down to 3.59, from 4.54. Greek 10 year yield jumped as much as 48 bps to 12.82%, hitting a Euro era record. Five year CD also rose to all time high of 1037 basis points. Portugal and Spain 10 year yield also rose. Markets are getting cautious ahead of EU leaders meeting on Friday, as they're expected to hammer out the highly anticipated comprehensive package of measures to tackle the region's debt crisis, which is expected to be signed off on March 25. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3935; (P) 1.3985 (R1) 1.4016; More. As noted before, a temporary top is at least in place at 1.4035 after EUR/USD missed 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.4037. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3858) and below. Though, strong support should be seen from near term rising trend line (now at 1.3788) to contain downside and bring another rise. Break of 1.3427 will bring rally resumption towards 1.4281 key resistance next. However, sustained trading below the trend line support will argue that whole rebound from 1.2873 is possibly completed and will bring deeper decline to 1.3472 support instead. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ To Cut In March In An Attempt To Restore ConfidenceThe RBNZ will very likely reduce its OCR from 3% at the March meeting. We expect a cut of -25 bps is appropriate though policymakers will state further easing cannot be ruled out depending on how economic data evolve. Prime Minister revealed his preference on a rate cut as the earthquake in Christchurch on February 22 will trim the country's economic growth this year. The market has fully priced in a -25 bps cut and bets for a -50 bps cut have been rising. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6250As cable has remained under pressure after falling sharply from yesterday's high of 1.6342, suggesting top has been formed last week at 1.6344 and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6150 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6030 to 1.6344), however, reckon 1.6115/20 would hold from here and risk has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8660Near term sideways trading is likely to continue and as long as last week's low at 0.9684 holds, initial upside risk remains for another corrective rebound to minor resistance at 0.9777, above would bring retracement to 0.9830/40, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 0.9902 and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9684 would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9650 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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