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Daily Report: Euro Firm ahead of ECB, Dollar Vulnerable to DownsideEuro remains firm against dollar ahead of the highly anticipated ECB meeting. The common currency also recovers against swissy as markets are expecting ECB Trichet to give a more hawkish tone on inflation in the post meeting conference. Dollar is generally soft as crude oil jumped back above 100 level overnight but downside is so far limited as oil struggles to take out recent high of 103.41. Also, gold retreats mildly after hitting new record high of 1441. Some consolidations would be seen ahead of ECB press conference today but the greenback is vulnerable to EUR/USD triggered broad based selloff. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2766; (P) 1.2794; (R1) 1.2833; More EUR/CHF's recovery suggests that consolidations from 1.2704 is still in progress and intraday is turned neutral again. More sideway trading would be seen first. But we'd still expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3203 to 1.2704 at 1.2895 to limit upside and finally bring fall resumption. Break of 1.2704 will confirm that whole decline from 1.3203 has resumed and should target a test on 1.2401 low first. |
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ECB Should Leave Rates Unchanged, Extend LTRO But Sound More UpbeatThe ECB will likely leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in March, although delivering a more hawkish tone in the press conference and the accompanying statement. ECB's staff projections on growth and inflation will also be revised up. Concerning the non-standard liquidity measures, the central bank will likely extend the full-allotment procedure for all open market operations for another 3 months but rates may vary. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9250Despite yesterday's resumption of downtrend to 0.9202, as the greenback has recovered, suggesting consolidation would take place, however, as long as 0.9282/85 holds, bearishness remains for recent decline to resume, break of said support would extend further weakness to indicated downside target at 0.9182 (100% projection of 0.9739-0.9415 measuring from 0.9506) and possibly 0.9150 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3815Yesterday's breach of resistance at 1.3857-62 confirms upmove has resumed and further gain towards 1.3950 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 1.4000 and risk from there has increased for a correction ahead of Friday's release of U.S. job reports. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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