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Daily Report: Yen Weakens after Earthquake and Tsunami, Euro Recovers ahead of EU SummitYen weakens today as Japan is hit by massive earthquake that struck the north-eastern coast. US officials said that earthquake is of 8.8 magnitude, about 400km from Tokyo. The quake also sent a powerful 20 feet tsunami onto the coast near the Miyagi prefecture. Asian stocks opened lower following the -228 pts drop in DOW overnight and extends losses after the earthquake and tsunami. The stronger than expectation inflation data from China, with saw CPI unchanged at 4.9% yoy in February with PPI up to 7.2%, also raised some concern of more tightening and weighs down market sentiments. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 114.03; (P) 114.64; (R1) 115.07; More EUR/JPY draws some support from 4 hours 55 EMA and recovers today but upside is still limited well below 115.96 near term resistance. Consolidations from there could be in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that even in case of deeper decline, we'd expect downside to be contained well above 111.95 support and bring rally resumption. Above 115.96 will target 100% projection of 105.42 to 115.65 from 106.81 at 117.04 next. |
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RBNZ Cut -50 Bps, More Than ExpectedThe RBNZ cut the OCR by -50 bps to 2.5% in March, more than we and the market had anticipated. Policymakers believed that the earthquake 'has caused substantial damage to property and buildings, and immense disruption to business activity' and 'it is clear that economic activity, most certainly in Christchurch but also nationwide, will be negatively impacted. Business and consumer confidence has almost certainly deteriorated'. The central bank expected that the emergency low level of interest rates will need to be removed 'once the rebuilding phase materializes'. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6140Yesterday's selloff signals recent fall from last week's high at 1.6344 is still in progress and test of previous support at 1.6030 is likely, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and bring further weakness to 1.6000 but reckon 1.5960/65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5345-1.6344) would hold from there due to near term oversold condition, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3920Despite yesterday's selloff to 1.3775, as the single currency has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation would take place and retracement to previous support at 1.3855 is likely, however, upside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3897) and renewed selling interest should emerge below the upper Kumo (now at 1.3923), bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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