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Mid-Day Report: Euro Soars on Inflation, Testing ResistanceEUR/USD breaches 1.42 level after stronger than expected inflation data affirmed the case for ECB to raise rates in April and increases the possibility for more rate hikes down the road this year. Eurozone flash CPI rose from 2.4% to 2.6% yoy in March, the highest level since October 2008 when CPI was at 3.2% yoy. This was also the consecutive fourth months that inflation stayed above ECB's 2% target. ECB is widely expected to raise rates by 25bps from historical level of 1% next week after Trichet used the famous word "vigilance" to signal rate hike in March meeting. Today's inflation data argues that more rate hikes are needed this year to bring inflation down to ECB's target, with some speculation that ECB will raise rates once every quarter. Job data from German was also positive with unemployment dropped -55k in March while unemployment rate dropped to 7.1%. EUR/USD would possibly take out 1.4247 resistance soon to resume recent up trend. EUR/GBP is also back pressing 0.8835 resistance and should be extending recent rally. |
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EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4069; (P) 1.4108 (R1) 1.4164; More. EUR/USD jumps to as high as 1.4231 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.4247 resistance and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6070Current sharp retreat from intra-day high of 1.6152 has dampened our near term bullishness for retracement of recent decline and 1.6035 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound, break of said resistance would bring stronger corrective rise to 1.6170 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6403 to 1.5937) but reckon 1.6190 would limit upside and previous support at 1.6215/20 should hold. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 116.00Current firmness after breaking previous resistance at 116.00 adds credence to our view that the wave ii is still unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg is still in progress for further gain to 117.50, then 118.00 but reckon 118.36 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 139.26 to 105.44) would hold on first testing. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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