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Daily Report: Dollar Rally Stalls, Swissy and Yen Mildly LowerDollar's recovery against Euro stalls in Asian today and is waiting for new momentum. On the one hand, investors are cautious ahead of this week's EU summit on Friday, where leaders are expected to nail down a comprehensive package to tackle the debt crisis in long term. However, there are some concerns that no concrete results would be out of the meeting. Meanwhile, oil price also stabilizes at around 104 level after OPEC refrained from pumping more output after yesterday's meeting. On the other hand, Euro is still supported by rate expectations. ECB Governing Council member Weber said that he "wouldn't do anything here to try to correct market expectations" where three quarter-point hikes are priced in. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2941; (P) 1.2991; (R1) 1.3050; More Despite edging higher to 1.3038, EUR/CHF struggled to take out 61.8% retracement of 1.2704 to 1.3203 decisively and is still bounded in tight range. Current outlook remains mixed. We'll stay neutral first. On the downside, below 1.2892 will suggest that rebound from 1.2704 was a correction and fall from 1.3203 is still in progress. Further break of 1.2704 will target a retest on 1.2401. Above 1.3038 will in turn argue that fall from 1.3203 was a correction and would bring stronger rally through 1.3203 high eventually. |
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BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged In March, Pressures Of Tightening Increased ThoughThe BOE will very likely leave the Bank unchanged at 1% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound at the March meeting. While the decisions will be the same as previous months, the economic backdrops have changed a lot. Recent rally in oil prices has increase global inflationary pressures and the ECB said last week that it may raise interest rates in April. Facing the same price pressures, the market has speculated the BOE will begin tightening in as soon as June. RBNZ To Cut In March In An Attempt To Restore ConfidenceThe RBNZ will very likely reduce its OCR from 3% at the March meeting. We expect a cut of -25 bps is appropriate though policymakers will state further easing cannot be ruled out depending on how economic data evolve. Prime Minister revealed his preference on a rate cut as the earthquake in Christchurch on February 22 will trim the country's economic growth this year. The market has fully priced in a -25 bps cut and bets for a -50 bps cut have been rising. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6260Despite yesterday's decline to 1.6125, as the British pound has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6166, same level as intra-day high) would bring retracement to 1.6255/60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6342 to 1.6125) where renewed selling interest should emerge, bring another decline. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3965As the single currency recovered after falling to 1.3862 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3926) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 1.4036, price should falter well below the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.3984-88) and bring another decline later. A break of said support would bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.3856 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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