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Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower Despite Trichet Signaled July Hike, Weak Greek GDP WeighedECB left benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25% as widely expected. Trichet signaled a July hike by saying that latest data confirmed "continued upward pressure on inflation" and "accordingly, strong vigilance is warranted. Latest Eurosystem staff projections were also released. Annual real GDP growth is expected to be at 1.2-2.3% in 2011 and 0.6-2.8% in 2012. That compared with March projection of 1.3-2.1% in 2011 and 0.8-2.8% in 2012. The band for 2011 was revised up, with a lower lower band and a higher higher band, reflecting uncertainties in the region. The upper band for 2012 was unchanged while the lower band was revised up, reflecting some improvements in economic recovery. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4533; (P) 1.4613 (R1) 1.4663; More. EUR/USD's pull back from 1.4695 extends further to as low as 1.4477 so far and breaks 4 hours 55 EMA. The small head and shoulder top pattern suggests short term topping and more consolidation could be seen below 1.4695. Deeper decline might be seen but we'd expect strong support from 1.4344, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.3969 to 1.4695 to contained downside and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4695 will bring rise resumption to 1.4938 resistance. |
| Featured Technical Report |
RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Statement Less HawkishThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While the decision had been widely anticipated, the Australian dollar fell as the accompanying statement appeared to be more dovish than previous ones. Policymakers pointed out that employment growth moderated and investment intentions eased in past months. The July meeting will also be a 'non-event' in the sense that the policy rate will stay the same. However, we may see some changes of wordings in the statement signaling a rate hike in August. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8365Despite intra-day brief drop to 0.8365 in reaction to Trichet's 'strong vigilance" comment, as the greenback has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest just above the Ichimoku cloud, adding credence to our near term bullishness for the rebound from this week's low at 0.8327 to bring retracement of recent decline towards 0.8452/63 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8547 to 0.8327). Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6355As cable has continued to move lower in tandem with intra-day selloff in euro, suggesting near term downside risk remains for weakness towards 1.6348, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, downside should be limited and support at 1.6324 should hold, bring another rebound later. A break of resistance at 1.6474 would add credence to our view that correction from 1.6547 has ended at 1.6285, bring test of previous resistance at 1.6496 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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