Euro Lifted by Trichet and Merkel

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Lifted by Trichet and Merkel

Euro strengthens today with help from comments from ECB President Trichet and German Chancellor Merkel. Trichet proposed a finance ministry for Eurozone to guard against future crises in the 17-nation region. Trichet asked the question in a speech in Germany, "would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the union?" He said that while such a move would not necessarily administer "a larger federal budget", it would "exert direct responsibilities in at least three domains." Firstly, that include surveillance of both fiscal policies and competitiveness policies. Secondly, carry out "all the typical responsibilities of the executive branches as regards the union's integrated financial sector, so as to accompany the full integration of financial services". Thirdly, "representation of the union confederation in international financial institutions". The comments are viewed as a move to push for more discipline within the Eurozone before Trichet steps down as ECB president and boost the Euro higher broadly today.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4281; (P) 1.4370 (R1) 1.4419; More.

EUR/USD's rise from 1.3969 resumed by taking out 1.4455 and reaches as high as 1.4485 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.4938 to 1.3969 at 1.4568. As discussed before, the corrective pull back from 1.4938 should have completed at 1.3969 already. Above 1.4568 will target a retest on 1.4938 high next. On the downside, though, below 1.4307 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May 16.20% 24.70% 23.90%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 3.30% 3.00% 3.80%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Apr 1.60B 2.13B 1.74B 1.69B
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Apr 1.10% 0.40% -0.50% -0.30%
08:30 GBP PMI Construction May 54 53.5 53.3
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 422K 420K 424K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F 1.80% 1.70% 1.60%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F 0.70% 0.80% 1.00%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Apr
-0.90% 3.40%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
92B 105B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
-1.7M 0.6M
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy again at 1.4350

Euro's breach of resistance at 1.4459 confirms recent upmove from 1.3968 is still in progress and further gain to 1.4490/00 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside and reckon 1.4550/55 would hold from here, bring a correction later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0600

Despite intra-day retreat to 1.0587, as aussie has rebounded from there, suggesting as long as this support holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains for another rebound to 1.0700 and then test of this week's high of 1.0757, break there would extend gain to indicated upside target at 1.0793 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1012-1.0440) but a sustained breach of this level is needed to confirm our view that correction from 1.1012 has ended at 1.0440

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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