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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Lower on Moody's CommentsSterling is sharply lower today after a Moody's spokesman said that even though UK's Aaa rating outlook is stable, "slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation efforts could cause the UK's debt metrics to deteriorate to a point where we would reconsider our stance." That is, the rating will be at risk if growth continue to slow and the government misses its debt reduction targets. The pound spikes lower against dollar, euro and yen right after the comment. However, we'd like to point out that the comments were indeed no different from what Moody's said in March. And thus, selling slowed as we enter into US session. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6356; (P) 1.6414; (R1) 1.6503; More. Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen between 1.6285/6470. The lack of follow through buying dampens the immediate bullish view of more rebound in GBP/USD. On the downside, below 1.6285 will turn bias to the downside for a retest on 1.6058 support. On the upside, above 1.6470 will revive that case that rebound from 1.6058 is still in progress and will flip bias back to the upside for 1.6546 and then 1.6744. |
| Featured Technical Report |
RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Statement Less HawkishThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While the decision had been widely anticipated, the Australian dollar fell as the accompanying statement appeared to be more dovish than previous ones. Policymakers pointed out that employment growth moderated and investment intentions eased in past months. The July meeting will also be a 'non-event' in the sense that the policy rate will stay the same. However, we may see some changes of wordings in the statement signaling a rate hike in August. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6375Although cable slipped shortly after the remark by Moody's on UK rating, bids by Asian CBs limited downside at 1.6355 and as long as this level holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rebound but break of yesterday's high of 1.6474 is needed to encourage for test of previous resistance at 1.6496. Looking ahead, break of the latter level is needed to add credence to the view that correction from 1.6547 has ended Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0630Aussie's retreat from 1.0775 (last Friday's high) has kept price under pressure and indicated previous support at 1.0580 (Friday's low) needs to hold to retain our bullishness for the rise from 1.0440 to resume and extend further gain to 1.0793 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1012-1.0440), then to 1.0850 but a sustained breach of resistance at 1.0889 is needed to confirm our view that correction from 1.1012 has ended at 1.0440. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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