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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbles on Poor Production Data, Canadian Dollar Mildly Higher on Jobs

Sterling drops sharply earlier today after poor economic data. Industrial production unexpectedly dropped -1.7% mom, -1.2% yoy in April while manufacturing production dropped -1.5% mom, rose 1.3% yoy. Both were sharply below market consensus. PPI input slowed more than expected to 15.7% yoy, PPI output and core were unchanged at 5.3% yoy and 3.4% yoy respectively. Markets are now speculating that BoE won't move before November and more weak economic data will only push the first hike further later.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6327; (P) 1.6397; (R1) 1.6435; More.

As noted before, GBP/USD's fall from 1.6546 resumed today and intraday bias remains on the downside for a 1.6058 support. Sustained break there will indicate that whole fall from 1.6744 has resumed too and should target 1.5343 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6470 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, we'll now stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

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Featured Technical Report

ECB Mentioned Strong Vigilance on Inflation, Rate Hike in July Likely

The June ECB meeting had mixed impacts on euro's movement. While the use of 'strong vigilance' signaled a rate hike next month, mild revisions growth forecast disappointed investors. Concerning sovereign debt problems in Greece, Trichet said the central bank is 'not in favor of restructuring, haircuts and so forth'.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr 2.60% 2.70% -6.00% -5.90%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M May -0.10% 0.20% 0.90%
02:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) May $13.10B $19.80B $11.42B
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M May F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May F 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Apr -1.70% 0.00% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Apr -1.20% 1.30% 0.70% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Apr -1.50% -0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr 1.30% 3.40% 2.70% 2.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M May -2.00% -1.00% 2.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y May 15.70% 16.20% 17.60% 17.90%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M May 0.20% 0.30% 0.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y May 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M May 0.20% 0.30% 0.60% 0.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y May 3.40% 3.40% 3.40% 3.60%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment May 22.3K 20.0K 58.3K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate May 7.40% 7.60% 7.60%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 0.20% -0.70% 2.20%
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement May
-157.6B -40.5B

GBP NIESR GDP Estimate May

0.30%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6250

Despite intra-day selloff to 1.6215, as cable has rebounded after holding above indicated previous resistance at 1.6210 and a hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow has been formed on the hourly chart, consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of this week's selloff to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6328), then test of previous support at 1.6358 but only break of intra-day resistance at 1.6384 would confirm low has been formed.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 115.85

The single currency has fallen again today on risk aversion and minor support at 115.21 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above intra-day resistance at 116.88 would suggest retreat from 117.90 has ended and bring test of yesterday's high of 117.46. Looking ahead, only a break of said resistance at 117.90 would encourage for the rise from 113.41 to extend gain to 118.60/65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 121.84-113.41)

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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