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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Lower on Dovish BoE Minutes, FOMC and Bernanke WatchedVote split of the June meeting changed from 6-3 to 7-1 in favor of no change after arch-hawk Sentance left the committee and was replaced by Broadbent, who joined the doves camp. Dale and Weale were the only hawk left, who voted for 25bps hike. The minutes were overall quite dovish as members focused moved away from inflation threat to the fragile economic recovery. The minutes suggested that a near term hike is highly unlikely and BoE would instead keep rates unchanged until next year. Indeed, the note that the risk of undershooting the 2% inflation target over the next few years has increased. Meanwhile, some members thought "it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialized." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6189; (P) 1.6222; (R1) 1.6276; More. GBP/USD's sharp fall today suggests that recovery from 1.6078 is completed at 1.6262 after failing to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.6058/78 support zone will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.6746 towards 1.5935 key support level. Also, note that GBP/USD has already taken out medium term rising trend line from 1..4229. Break of 1.5935 should confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5344 support and below. On the upside, though, above 1.6441 will revive the bullish case instead and take another high above 1.6746. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Updatae: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.8460As dollar has remained confined within intra-day narrow range, suggesting further sideways consolidation would be seen, however, still reckon 0.8455 (yesterday’s high) would cap upside, bring another decline later. A sustained breach of yesterday’s low at 0.8400 would extend the fall from 0.8552 to support at 0.8348 but a break of this support is needed to confirm correction from 0.8327 has ended Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 116.50As the single currency has continued to edge higher after rebounding from this week’s low of 113.58, adding credence to our view that near term upside risk remains correction to 116.20/25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 117.90 to 113.51), however, reckon resistance at 116.69 would limit upside, bring another decline later. A break of support at 113.51-58 would reinforce our count that early rebound from 113.41 to 117.90 was the x wave of the wave B correction Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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