Risk Appetite Lifted Mildly by China Data

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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Lifted Mildly by China Data

Dollar and yen are both mildly lower against other major currencies today as risk appetite is given a mild lift by positive China data. CPI rose to 5.5% yoy in May, inline with expectation. While further tightening is still widely expected, today's data wasn't anything drastic that would trigger even more aggressive measures from China. There were whispers in the markets that the number could be as bad as 6% yoy. PPI was unchanged at 6.8% yoy in May. Growth data were solid with retail sales up 16.9% yoy in May while industrial production slowed slightly to 13.3% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6263; (P) 1.6327; (R1) 1.6438; More.

The strong break of 1.6315 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.6546 has completed at 1.6212 already. The three wave structure also suggests that it's merely a correction. Focus now turns to 1.6471 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that rebound from 1.6058 is likely resuming for 1.6546 and above to 1.6746 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.6212 will turn focus back to 1.6058 again.

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Special Reports

SNB To Leave Rates Unchanged On Subdued Inflation And Slower Growth

The SNB will likely leave interest rates at 0.25% at the June meeting. Economic data released over the past 2 weeks suggested both growth and inflation were mild in the country, indicating there's no need for policymakers to alter monetary policies for now. Moreover, elevated Swiss franc has also helped counter some of the stimulating effects of accommodative policies, further reducing the urgency of a rate hike.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance May -28.00% -20.00% -21.00%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence May 6
7
2:00 CNY CPI Y/Y May 5.50% 5.50% 5.30%
2:00 CNY PPI Y/Y May 6.80% 6.50% 6.80%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May 16.90% 17.00% 17.10%
2:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 13.30% 13.10% 13.40%
3:40 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr F 1.60%
1.00%
5:45 CHF SECO June 2011 Economic Forecasts


8:30 GBP DCLG House Prices Y/Y Apr
-0.20% 0.90%
8:30 GBP CPI M/M May
0.20% 1.00%
8:30 GBP CPI Y/Y May
4.50% 4.50%
8:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y May
3.50% 3.70%
8:30 GBP RPI M/M May
0.30% 0.80%
8:30 GBP RPI Y/Y May
5.20% 5.20%
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q1
77.20% 76.40%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May
0.00% 0.80%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May
6.60% 6.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May
0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May
2.10% 2.10%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May
-0.40% 0.50%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May
0.30% 0.60%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr
1.00% 1.10%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4485

As the single currency has continued to edge higher on the back of intra-day rally in cable, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.4285 to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.4478-88 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), however, reckon 1.4514 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4655-1.4285) would hold, bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Stand aside

Despite intra-day brief fall to 80.09, as the greenback has rebounded again after holding above indicated support at 79.96 (Friday’s low), suggesting further consolidation would take place and recovery to 80.47 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of resistance at 80.70 would revive bullishness and signal recent fall has ended at 79.69 last week, bring retracement of recent decline to 81.00 but resistance at 81.33 should remain intact.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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