UK Analysis: Apr Claimant Count Sees Largest Rise Since Jan 10

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• Apparently………
• Update: BOE Minutes: Same MPC Split; Some See Strong Hike Case
• BOE MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates steady in May
• UK Analysis: Apr Claimant Count Sees Largest Rise Since Jan 10
• BOE Minutes: MPC Splits Same Way: Some See Strong Hike Case
• UK DATA: Apr Claimant Count Unemployment +12,400…..
• UK jobless claims +12,400
• More Bini Smaghi….
• EU Rehn: Greece Should Beef Up Privatization Program Soon
• ECB’s Bini Smaghi: Idea advanced economy may not pay back its debts “devastating” for overall financial stability
• Hot gossip……..
• IMF’s Thomsen: Greece’s programme will run off track without determined effort by Greece
• EU’s Barroso: Europe’s public debt levels are too high
• ECB’s Stark: Illusion to think Greek debt restructuring would help solve problems country faces
• ECB Stark: Monetary & Economomic Stimuli No Longer Needed
• Cable dips slightly
• Danish May consumer confidence +2.6 pts
• Germany Govt Advisor Warns Against Tax Cuts; Press
• ECB’s Stark: Euro zone economy no longer need degree of economic or monetary stimulus as at height of crisis
• Cable steady early; jobs data, BOE minutes awaited

Apparently……… Posted: Handelsblatt reports Deutschebank’s chief risk officer Banziger has told the bank to prepare and provision for a 20-30% haircut on its Greek debt exposure. Sounds sensible to me

Update: BOE Minutes: Same MPC Split; Some See Strong Hike Case Posted: –Adds Detail, Recasts Version Transmitted At O830 GMT –Clarifies Line On “Finely Balanced” Case For Rate Hike –6 BOE MPC Voted for Unchanged Bank Rate; 3 for Hike –BOE MPC Dale, Weale voted for 25bps Rate Hike –BOE MPC Sentance Voted for 50bps Rate Hike –8 BOE MPC Voted for Unchanged QE; Posen Voted for [...]

BOE MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates steady in May Posted: Voted 8-1 to keep QE at 200 bln, as expected. And as expected, rumour Weale had changed his vote proved a load of old cobblers. Weale and Dale see case for rate hike rise as “finely balanced” given weak real economy, uncertain outlook Balance of risks around inflation had not changed enough over month for MPC [...]

UK Analysis: Apr Claimant Count Sees Largest Rise Since Jan 10 Posted: –Apr Claimant Count Unemployment +12,400 m/m; Rate 4.6% –Mar Average Weekly Earnings +2.3% vs +2.1% in Feb –Mar Average Weekly Earnings ex bonuses +2.1% vs +2.2% in Feb –UK Jan-Mar ILO Unemployment -36,000 Q/Q; Rate 7.7% –UK Mar Claimant Count revised to +6,400 m/m from +700 LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment rose at its [...]

BOE Minutes: MPC Splits Same Way: Some See Strong Hike Case Posted: –6 BOE MPC Voted for Unchanged Bank Rate; 3 for Hike –BOE MPC Dale, Weale voted for 25bps Rate Hike –BOE MPC Sentance Voted for 50bps Rate Hike –8 BOE MPC Voted for Unchanged QE; Posen Voted for stg50bn Increase –NO Change MPC: Inflation Report Didn’t Imply Immediate Hike Needed LONDON (MNI) – The Bank [...]

UK DATA: Apr Claimant Count Unemployment +12,400….. Posted: UK DATA: Apr Claimant Count Unemployment +12,400 m/m; Rate 4.6% –Mar Average Weekly Earnings +2.3% vs +2.1% in Feb –Mar Average Weekly Earnings ex bonuses +2.1% vs +2.2% in Feb –UK Jan-Mar ILO Unemployment -36,000 Q/Q; Rate 7.7% –UK Mar Claimant Count revised to +6,400 m/m from +700 ———————————————————————— Claimant count unemployment rose 12,400 m/m [...]

UK jobless claims +12,400 Posted: Worse than expected. Median forecast had been calling for flat. Biggest rise since January 2010. Claimant count rate up to 4.6% from expected 4.5%. On the flip side, Ilo jobless -36,000 in 3 months to March. Rate down to 7.7%, better than median forecast of unchanged 7.8%. Lowest rate since July-Sept 2010. Average earnings 3 [...]

More Bini Smaghi…. Posted: What a windbag this bloke is. ECB must look at euro area as a whole in its monetary policy ECB would lose people’s confidence if it left inflation rise to help countries in hardship

EU Rehn: Greece Should Beef Up Privatization Program Soon Posted: BRUSSELS (MNI) – Greece should take measures to beef up its privatization program in the coming days for EU authorities to extend its bailout program, European Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said Wednesday. “It’s clear that Greece has to seriously reinforce the implementation of economic reform and the privatization program,” Rehn told a conference [...]

ECB’s Bini Smaghi: Idea advanced economy may not pay back its debts “devastating” for overall financial stability Posted: U.S. and British central banks, unlike ECB, are financing state deficits, postponing consolidation Hard to consolidate public finances without economic growth Soft-restructuring concept unclear, nobody knows what it means exactly (thank goodness!!, thought it was me being slow) At such a delicate time one should avoid “magic formulas” Greece faces choice between tough consolidation measures [...]

Hot gossip…….. Posted: Well, lukewarm really. Some very vague talk UK jobs data will not be as good as expected. No numbers mentioned. Take it for what you will. More interesting and somewhat more out of left field; mutterings Weale changed his vote at MPC meet and didn’t call for rate hike this time round. So that would make [...]

IMF’s Thomsen: Greece’s programme will run off track without determined effort by Greece Posted: C’mon, let’s get real here. It’s gonna run off track, end of. Sees Greek GDP this year about 1% point lower than expected There is question whether Greece can return to markets next year (ya think?) Essential to significantly acclerate public sector reform to further reduce Greek deficit Greek deficit will not go much below [...]

EU’s Barroso: Europe’s public debt levels are too high Posted: But compare favourably with U.S.

ECB’s Stark: Illusion to think Greek debt restructuring would help solve problems country faces Posted: If Greece implements programme, debt sustainability is assured Debt restructuring not appropriate way forward, real catastrophy EUR/USD sits at 1.4280, back to where it was when I arrived some two and a half hours ago.

ECB Stark: Monetary & Economomic Stimuli No Longer Needed Posted: ATHENS (MNI) – The economic and monetary stimuli that were adopted at the height of the financial crisis are no longer needed in the Eurozone, European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said on Wednesday, noting the stronger-than-expected increase in 1Q GDP. In the text of a speech to be given at an event [...]

Cable dips slightly Posted: Off about 25 pips, presently at 1.6240. Reports of a couple of “small sovereigns” selling in early trade.

Danish May consumer confidence +2.6 pts Posted: Stronger than Reuters median forecast of +1. Oh-eh, what about them confident Danes then ?

Germany Govt Advisor Warns Against Tax Cuts; Press Posted: BERLIN (MNI) – Lars Feld, a member of the German government’s council of independent economic advisers — the so-called five wise men — Wednesday against cutting tax rates despite rising tax revenue expectations. There exist still too many risks to the budget outlook at the moment, Feld said in an interview on German Deutschlandradio. The [...]

ECB’s Stark: Euro zone economy no longer need degree of economic or monetary stimulus as at height of crisis Posted: Economic recovery in the euro zone has become more broad-based High debt countries require significant further fiscal conslidation efforts New fiscal rules do not go far, would be useful to have gradual financial sanctions Important markets play disciplinary role, need realisation no bail out clause is constraint of the euro Some loss of sovereignty part [...]

Cable steady early; jobs data, BOE minutes awaited Posted: Cable sits serenely at 1.6265, pretty much unchanged over past couple of hours. 08:30 GMT: Release of latest Bank of England minutes. 08:30 GMT: Jobless claims for April expected flat; claimant count rate expected unchanged at 4.5%; ILO unemployment rate for 3 months to March expected unchanged at 7.8%; av earnings 3 months to March expected [...]