Dollar Remains Pressured, Yen Lower on Fitch Outlook Downgrade

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Remains Pressured, Yen Lower on Fitch Outlook Downgrade

Dollar remains broadly pressured in early US session as data from US provides little support. Personal income rose 0.4% in April while spending rose 0.4%. PCE core rose 0.2% mom, 1.0% yoy and headline PCE rose 2.2% yoy. The data are basically inline with market expectations. Dollar index breaches 75 level as mild strength in commodities and equities. Technically, such development indicates near term reversal in the index and we'd likely see more downside in the greenback ahead.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 80.93; (P) 81.50; (R1) 81.86; More.

USD/JPY recovers mildly after dipping to 80.83 earlier today. But with 81.45 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. As discussed before, choppy recovery from 79.58 should have finished at 82.23 already. Break of 79.58 low will confirm decline resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 85.51 to 79.58 from 82.23 at 78.56 next. On the upside, above 81.45 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. Also, this would delay the bearish case and probably bring another recovery before decline resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment May -21 -31 -31
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Apr 0.60% 0.60% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -4.80% -6.20% -8.30%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr 2.00% 2.40% 2.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence May 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May -9.8 -10 -10
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence May 3.9 5.3 5.8 6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence May 9.2 10 10.4
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator May 2.3 2.22 2.29
12:30 USD Personal Income Apr 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Apr 0.40% 0.50% 0.60%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Apr 1.00% 1.00% 0.90%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Apr 2.20% 2.20% 1.80%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May F
72.4 72.4
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Apr
-1.00% 5.10%

EUR German CPI M/M May P 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%

EUR German CPI Y/Y May P 2.30% 2.30% 2.40%
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