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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Dives on BoE King and PMI, Yen RalliesSterling tumbles sharply today on comments from BoE Governor King as well as weaker than expected manufacturing data. King warned that with rising interest rates, " the economic challenges of high levels of indebtedness would become more severe." King noted that the financial crisis is far from over and "economic challenges will last for many years." The comments fueled some speculation that BoE could indeed keep rates on hold within this year. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped sharply from 56.7 to 54.6 in April versus expectation of 57.0, and it's the lowest reading in seven months. Markit said that the "manufacturing growth spurt looks to be fading rapidly... outlook has deteriorated sharply, with new-orders growth having collapsed from a booming pace at the start of the year to only register a weak influx of new business in April." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.87; (P) 81.28; (R1) 81.56; More. USD/JPY drops further to as low as 80.69 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. |
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RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged But Sees Rising Inflationary PressuresAs expected, the RBA left the cash rate at 4.75% for a 5th meeting in May. While acknowledging continued growth in global economy, policymakers stated floods in Queensland may cause a decline in real GDP in 1Q11. Concerning inflation, the central bank was aware that underlying inflation has run its course recently. In the longer term, price levels will increase further if economic conditions evolve broadly as expected. We expect the central bank will resume tightening in the second half of the year as inflation pressures heighten. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD –Sell at 1.6580Cable's intra-day selloff after breaking support at 1.6585 confirms top has been formed at 1.6747 last week and downside bias remains for correction of recent upmove to 1.6450, then test of previous support at 1.6432, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.6400 and bring rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0705As the Australian dollar has retreated after yesterday's brief rise to fresh record high of 1.1011, suggesting minor top is formed and consolidation below there is seen with mild downside bias for retracement to 1.0800 and possibly 1.0774/77 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0390 to 1.1012 and minor support) but reckon 1.0701 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside, bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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