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Daily Report: EUR/CHF Rebounds on Greece Hope, Weak Swiss DataSwiss Franc is notably lower against Euro after EU finance ministers leader said yesterday that EU has ruled out a "total restructuring" of Greece's debts. The inspection team is expected to complete a review on Greece's implementation of bailout requirements and EU will then formulate a plan for additional aids by the end of next month. Meanwhile, it's reported that Germany will drop the call for rescheduling of Greek bonds but instead, consider to make concessions on efforts to put together a bailout for Greece. On the other hand, data from Switzerland are disappointing, with Q1 GDP grew merely 0.3% qoq comparing to consensus of 0.7% qoq. UBS consumption indicator dropped slightly to 1.59 in April. The GDP data basically ruled out the possibility of a Q2 hike from SNB. Data from Eurozone saw German retail sales rose .6% mom in April. Eurozone CPI is the main focus and is expected to be be unchanged at 2.8% yoy in May while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.9% in April. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2141; (P) 1.2162; (R1) 1.2191; More The break of 1.2255 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is formed in EUR/CHF. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some recovery could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2338). But upside is expected to be limited by 1.2484 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2100 will target 1.2 psychological level first and then 100% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2401 from 1.3234 at 1.1802 next. |
| Special Report |
BOC To Deliver Same Dovish Tone As In Early May, No Change In Policy Stance In JuneWhile the June BOC meeting will likely be a non-event (i.e.: the policy rate will stay at 1% while corresponding Bank Rate and Deposit Rate will remain at 1.25% and 0.75% respectively), the market focus is on whether Governor Mark Carney will hint on a rate hike in the next month. We expect the post-meeting statement will remain dovish, a similar tone as the speech the Governor delivered earlier this month. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4275As the single currency has rallied after yesterday’s minor pullback, suggesting the rise from 1.3968 is still in progress and the breach of previous resistance at 1.4345 signals a stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.4940 is still in progress for further gain towards 1.4450/55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4940 to 1.3968), however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.4500 would hold Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6445 or sell at 1.6600Although the British pound has risen again after yesterday’s pullback to 1.6451 and further gain to 1.6570/75 (50% projection of 1.6275-1.6515 measuring from 1.6451) would be seen, weakening of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.6595/00 (61.8% projection) would limit upside and bring retreat later today. Below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6476) would bring retracement to said support at 1.6451 but reckon 1.6443 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6275-1.6547) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rally. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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