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Daily Report: Aussie Rebounds on Hawkish RBA, Dollar Firm ahead of NFPAustralian dollar pared much of this week's commodities triggered loss and rebounded after an hawkish RBA quarterly monetary policy statement. The bank left growth forecast unchanged at 4.25% in 2011. But CPI projection was raised to 3.25%, up from February's projection of 3.00%. Core inflation estimate was also raised from 2.75% to 3.00%. The bank noted that "further tightening of monetary policy is likely to be required at some point" to keep inflation in target range of 2-3%. Markets are pricing in that RBA will hike by 35 bps over the next 12 months, up from 29 bps yesterday. There might be additional support to the Aussie as oversold commodities recover ahead of week. AUD/USD looks set to stabilize above 1.05 for the moment and would likely consolidation between 1.05/1.10 for a while. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0482; (P) 1.0627; (R1) 1.0717; More AUD/USD made a temporary low at 1.0536 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Another fall might be seen as long as 1.0788 minor resistance holds and below 1.0536 will target 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. Above 1.0788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a retest on 1.1010. But decisive break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption or consolidations would likely extend further with another fall. |
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No 'Strong Vigilance' Pledged, Euro Plunges as Trichet Sounds Less HawkishThe ECB left the main refinancing rate at 1.25%, after hiking it by +25 bps in April, at the May meeting. Policymakers omitted the reference 'strong vigilance' for a second month and viewed the monetary policy stance 'still accommodative'. The central bank pledged to 'monitor very closely' all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. The euro fell as hopes for a rate hike in the coming month dissipated. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4675Although the single currency tumbled yesterday on comments by ECB's Trichet, as euro has recovered after falling to yesterday's low of 1.4510, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and recovery to 1.4655/60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4900 to 1.4510) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.4674 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4940 to 1.4510) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8635Despite yesterday's retreat to 0.8556, the subsequent rally after holding above this week's low at 0.8554 signal a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 0.8728 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8835 to 0.8554) and possibly towards previous resistance at 0.8760, however, near term overbought condition would limit upside to the latter resistance Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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