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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Softer on Disappointing Manufacturing Data, Commodity ConsolidatesDollar weakens mildly in early US session as data showed manufacturing activities slowed more than expected in May. The empire state manufacturing index dropped sharply from the one year high of 21.7 in April to 11.9 in May, much worse than expectation of 19.7. Nevertheless, above zero readings means manufacturing in New York, Northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut is still in expansion mode. TIC reports showed $24b inflow in March, less than half of expectation of $57.7b. Canadian manufacturing shipments rose 1.9% mom in March. Other data released saw Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.8% yoy in April with core CPI up 1.6% yoy while trade balance showed EUR -0.9b deficit in March. Japan Japan domestic CGPI rose 0.9% mom, 2.2% yoy in April. Machine orders rose 2.9% mom, 6.8% yoy in March. Household confidence dropped sharply to 33.4 in April. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8832; (P) 0.8889; (R1) 0.8980; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top should be in place at 0.8945 and intraday bias is turned neutral. USD/CHF is still limited inside near term falling channel and there is no indicate of reversal. Below 0.8797 will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.8552 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption. On the upside, focus will remain on 0.9006. Sustained break there will will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, before that, we'll stay bearish. |
| Special Report |
World Inflation II: Commodity Currencies - AUD, NZD, CADThe current wave of inflation has been brought about by commodities. We, therefore, feel it necessary to talk a look at countries with the so-called 'commodity currencies'. We found Australia is the one facing more severe price pressures. For New Zealand, inflation has been affected by one-factors while underlying pressures remained subdued. Both headline and core inflation in Canada accelerated but the central bank is not likely to change its dovish view in coming months. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD –Sell at 1.6300Although the British pound has resumed recent decline and fell to as low as 1.6147 last Friday, as cable has recovered from there in part due to cross-buying against euro, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6228) would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6300 and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4205The single currency ran into heavy offers at 1.4340 last Friday and resumed recent decline from 1.4940 top and although price has recovered from 1.4049, recovery should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4194) and renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4209), bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.4049 would extend weakness to psychological support at 1.4000 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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