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Daily Report: Euro Recovers as Portugal Aid Approved, Focus on UK CPIEuro recovered mildly on positive news that EU finance ministers has finally approved a three year, EUR 78b bailout for Portugal, first tranche due by the end of May. Also Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said that a treaty on European Stability Mechanism will be signed in June. Regarding the situation in Greece, Juncker said that EU would consider "reprofiling" Greek bond maturities if conditions of state asset privatization and deeper spending cuts are met. Overtone in the common currency remains soft in spite to this week's recovery and near term resistance in EUR/USD, EURGBP and EUR/CHF still hold. We'd continue to favor more down side in these pairs in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 130.29; (P) 130.89; (R1) 131.40; More GBP/JPY is supported slightly above 130.17 key near term support level and recovers. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral. Note that on the downside, sustained trading below 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, however, break of 134.00 will indicate that fall from 139.99 has possibly completed already. This will also reaffirm the case that rise from 122.40 is not completed. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 137.01 resistance for confirmation. |
| Special Report |
World Inflation II: Commodity Currencies - AUD, NZD, CADThe current wave of inflation has been brought about by commodities. We, therefore, feel it necessary to talk a look at countries with the so-called 'commodity currencies'. We found Australia is the one facing more severe price pressures. For New Zealand, inflation has been affected by one-factors while underlying pressures remained subdued. Both headline and core inflation in Canada accelerated but the central bank is not likely to change its dovish view in coming months. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8905Despite yesterday's selloff to 0.8800, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above previous support at 0.8798, suggesting first leg of corrective decline from last week's high of 0.8947 has ended and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8900) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 0.8947, upside would be limited and bring another decline later. Below 0.8820 would bring another test of 0.8798-8800 support area Trade Idea: GBP/USD –Sell at 1.6320Although the British pound retreated after yesterday's rebound to 1.6255, break of 1.6160 (yesterday's low) is needed to confirm recent decline from 1.6747 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.6147, then 1.6120, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Above said resistance would bring another corrective rebound to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6264), then towards 1.6300, however, resistance at 1.6322 should limit upside Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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