Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-16-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Up on Housing Starts, Sterling Tumbles after Dovish BoE Inflation Report

Dollar strengthens in early US session after stronger than expected housing data. Housing starts jumped 15% to 596k annualized rate in January. Building permits, though dropped 10% to 562k annualized rate. PPI in US rose 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy in January, with core PPI up 0.5% mom, 1.6% yoy, both above consensus. Canadian international securities transactions rose to CAD 9.63b, leading indicators rose 0.3% mom, manufacturing rose 0.4% mom in December. Broad based weakness in seen in European majors today on various reasons. Dollar index looks set to have another attempt to break 78.78 key near term resistance.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9636; (P) 0.9682; (R1) 0.9716; More.

USD/CHF drew strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds today. The development argues that rise from 0.9329 may be resuming. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 0.9782 resistance will confirm resumption of rebound from 0.9300 and should pave the way towards 1.0065 key resistance next. Below 0.9616 will bring deeper retreat. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.9523 support and bring rise resumption.

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Special Report

BOE Raised Inflation Forecasts, Yet Lowered Growth Outlook

The pound slumped against the US dollar and the euro as the BOE revised lower it growth forecasts despite higher inflationary outlook in the near-term. In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE unveiled the outlook that inflation will most likely fall a little below the target in the second half of 2012, but the risks relative to that most likely path are 'skewed to the upside'. Growth forecasts were revised lower as higher interest rate assumption (1%) was used and GDP growth in 4Q10 was weak.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Dec 0.80% -- 0.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec -0.80% -0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
00:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Jan 47 50 53 54
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Jan 2.4K -3.0K -4.1K -3.4K
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jan 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Dec 7.90% 7.90% 7.90%
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
-- --
13:30 USD Housing Starts Jan 596K 540K 529K 520K
13:30 USD Building Permits Jan 562K 565K 627K
13:30 USD PPI M/M Jan 0.80% 0.80% 1.10%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jan 3.60% 3.50% 4.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jan 0.50% 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jan 1.60% 1.20% 1.30%
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec 9.63B 7.22B 8.01B
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Dec 0.40% 2.50% -0.80%
14:15 USD Industrial Production Jan
0.50% 0.80%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jan
76.40% 76.00%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
-- 1.9M
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
-- --
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3545

Despite intra-day rise to 1.3571, as the single currency has retreated from there on the back of intra-day selloff in cable, suggesting top has possibly been formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to yesterday's low at 1.3460, break would confirm the correction from this week's low at 1.3428 has ended and bring a retest of this level later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD –Hold short entered at 1.0065

Although aussie has recovered again after falling to 0.9944 yesterday, as long as yesterday's high of 1.0058 holds, bearishness remains for the fall from 1.0201 to resume after consolidation, break of said support would extend weakness to 0.9900, however, reckon support at 0.9865/70 would hold on first testing.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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