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Daily Report: Dollar Dives on Strong Risk AppetiteRisk appetite continues to drive the markets today, sending Asian stocks to two months high, dollar to three months low while some commodities like copper and cotton made new record high. The moves were driven by strong manufacturing data from across the Atlantic yesterday and fueled further by speculation that protests in Egypt will eventually be contained. Economic data will remain a primary focus today, in particular with ADP employment report, a leading indicator to Friday's Non-Farm payroll, featured. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9866; (P) 0.9937; (R1) 0.9976; More. USD/CAD's break of 0.9910 indicates that choppy recovery from 0.9836 has finished at 1.0057 already. Intraday bias is back to the downside and recent down trend is likely resuming for another low below 0.9836. Also, note that with 4 hours MACD breaking it's lower trend line, USD/CAD is regaining downside momentum. Break of 0.9836 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779 first and possibly further to 0.9709 support. On the upside, above 1.0057 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB To Keep Policy Rate At 1% Despite Higher Inflation PressureThe ECB is expected to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the current monetary policy as 'appropriate' in February. Concerning inflation, President Trichet will regard recent rise in inflation as temporary and stress that the ECB will be act if needed if it sees second-round effects from rising commodity prices. We retain our view that the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged throughout 2011. However, an early rate hike cannot be ruled out if there are signs significant upside pressure from domestic prices. RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged, Expects Limited Impacts From FloodingThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3775As the single currency has eased after intra-day rise to 1.3860/61, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.3776-81 (previous resistance and current level of the Kijun-Sen) is likely, however, reckon another previous resistance at 1.3740 would hold, bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend upmove towards 1.3890 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.05As dollar has recovered after falling to 81.31 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 81.62) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 82.05) where renewed selling interest would emerge and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend downtrend to previous chart support at 80.93 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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