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Daily Report: EUR/USD Capped ahead of Bernanke, AUD/USD Lower after RBAMarkets are mixed as an extremely busy day starts. EUR/USD edged higher to 1.3854 yesterday but was capped by 1.3860 near term resistance. Expectation that Fed will lag other major central banks in policy stimulus removal is one of the major factors that drove the greenback lower recently. Now that crude oil is stabilizing below 100 level, main focus will be on Bernanke's semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. The Fed chairman is expected to be pressed hard on questions on inflation and the impact of Fed's on-going quantitative easing strategy. But Bernanke, while would acknowledge improvements in growth outlook, will likely remain cautious and hints it's premature to exit any accommodative measures for the time being. Before that, ISM manufacturing index will be a main focus too and is expected to be steady at 60.5 in February. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0139; (P) 1.0166; (R1) 1.0211; More AUD/USD edged higher to 1.0200 but failed to sustain gain and retreats again. Nevertheless, another rise remains mildly in favor with 1.0119 minor support intact. As noted before, while upside momentum is clearly seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, AUD/USD is still drawing strong support from 55 days EMA. Recent up trend should still continue further. Break of 1.0199 again will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, below 1.0119 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, break of 0.9943 support is needed to be the first signal of topping. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish yet. |
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RBA On Hold, Sees Only Moderate Inflationary PressureAs widely expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation remained contained. The accompanying statement delivered a neutral tone as policymakers see balanced risks to growth and inflation outlook. For the first time in the current tightening cycle, the RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy is 'mildly restrictive'. Yet it remained 'appropriate in view of the general macroeconomic outlook'. BoC to Leave Policy Rate UnchangedThe Bank of Canada will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers will note that domestic economic growth has softened recently though the global outlook has shown more sustainability. The tone in the policy statement will remain dovish, indicating presence of some event risks: strength in Canadian dollar since the last meeting, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery and civil unrests in the Middle East and North Africa. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy again at 1.6200Yesterday's anticipated rally and the breach of resistance at 1.6275-79 signals recent upmove has resumed and a retest of previous chart resistance at 1.6300 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend further gain towards 1.6350 but reckon 1.6390/00 would hold from here, bring minor correction later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.90Although the greenback re-visited last week's low at 81.62 yesterday, failure to penetrate this support and the subsequent rebound suggest a temporary low has possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 82.52-59 (previous support and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 83.56-81.62) and possibly towards 82.80/85 before prospect of another decline later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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