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Mid-Day Report: Euro Falls on Portugal Yield, Dollar Lifted by Job DataEuro dives lower today as Portugal's borrowing rates jump to euro-era record, and takes other major currencies lower against dollar. The 10 year Portugal bond yield hit 7.6% in the markets before falling back to 7.3%, not far from the point where Ireland was forced to bailout. It's rumored that ECB intervened in the government bond markets today for the time in two weeks to reverse the sharp jump in Portugal bond yields. There are talks that investors are getting impatient on the lack of concrete measures to tackle the Eurozone debt crisis. Also, there are additional support to the greenback as initial jobless claims dropped sharply to 383k. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3646; (P) 1.3695 (R1) 1.3780; More. EUR/USD's break of 1.3610 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.3510 has finished at 1.3743 already. Correction from 1.3860 is still in progress and should be resuming. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.3510 and then 100% projection at 1.3393. However, larger outlook in EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish as fall from 1.4281 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2873. We'd expect downside of the current correction to be contained above 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) and bring rise resumption. |
| Special Report |
ECB Unlikely To Raise Interest Rates Despite Higher Inflationary Pressures In Coming MonthsThe ECB has been increasing concerned about inflationary pressure in the region. While the central bank decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterated current monetary policy as 'appropriate'. Several council members have voiced their worries about rising price levels. Indeed, Eurozone's inflation primarily comes from food and energy prices and these risks should continue to put upward risks to price levels in coming months. That said, the ECB should remain cautious in changing its accommodative policy stance as it's difficult to control food and energy prices through tightening. Moreover, euro's strength and the market's rate hike expectations have helped the central bank to do some of the tightening. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9555Although the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after rebounding from yesterday's low at 0.9554, above resistance at 0.9661 is needed to confirm upmove from 0.9329 has resumed and extend gain to 0.9685-90 (previous resistance and 61.8% projection of 0.9329-0.9598 measuring from 0.9523) and possibly to 0.9720, otherwise, further consolidation cannot be ruled out Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy again at 82.40As the greenback has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting the rise from 81.10 (last week's low) is still in progress and further gain to 83.00, then resistance at 83.22 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and resistance at 83.70 should hold, then choppy trading within recent established range of 80.93 – 83.70 would continue. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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