Action Insight Mid-Day 2-14-11


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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Sold off on WestLB Concern

Euro is sold off earlier today on concern that the troubled German lender WestLB is under threat as there's media report that the bank is struggling to come up with a rescue deal before presenting the restructuring plan to European Commission. The new raised doubt on EU's ability to agree on a plan to bolster the EFSF before April. Meanwhile, Portugal reported -0.3% contraction in Q4 GDP, the first quarterly decline in a year, as the government tried to narrow the budget deficit. Investors are also cautious ahead of a meeting between European finance ministers today and tomorrow to review the rules that could force Greece into making unsustainably large spending cuts once its support package runs out in 2013.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3495; (P) 1.3558 (R1) 1.3619; More.

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3449 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection at 1.3393 as correction from 1.3860 continues. Nevertheless, outlook in EUR/USD will remain cautiously bullish with 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) intact. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Above 1.3571 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 1.3743 resistance should bring rally resumption though 1.3860 towards 1.4281 key resistance. But, decisive break of 1.2873 will turn focus back to this low instead.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Dec -1.10% -0.40% 1.50% 1.20%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Dec -1.20% -0.30% -0.20% -0.40%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.30% -0.40% 1.10% 0.80%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P -1.60% -1.40% -2.40% -2.10%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Dec 2.10% 1.00% 2.50%
2:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Jan 6.5B 10.3B 13.1B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec -0.10% -0.20% 1.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Dec 8.00% 8.00% 7.90%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6070

As intra-day retreat from 1.6080 has kept cable under pressure, suggesting the rebound from Friday's low at 1.5963 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retest of this support, however, break there is needed to confirm the decline from 1.6279 has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5943-52 (100% projection of 1.6279-1.6036 measuring from 1.6186 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5750-1.6279)

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold short entered at 0.9950

As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery (just enough for our short entry at 0.9950), bearishness remains for a test of recent low at 0.9832, break there would confirm downtrend has resumed and extend weakness in wave (iii) for further fall to 0.9800 and eventually towards indicated downside target at 0.9710/15 (100% projection of 1.0210-0.9889 measuring from 1.0035).

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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