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Daily Report: Euro Consolidates on Renewed Egypt Concern, ECB AwaitedEuro weakens mildly today on renewed concern on Egypt unrest after new reported that there were violent clashes between pro- and anti- government demonstrators. There were gunfire reported in Cairo's Square with footage of bodies being dragged along a street. Though, pressure on the common currency is mild and recent up trend is still intact. Main focus will indeed be on the tone of ECB President Trichet's press conference after rate setting meeting later today. Dollar remains soft on strength in commodities which we saw CRB index rose another 1.63 pts yesterday to close at 343.8. Crude oil is staying firm above 90 level for the moment. Dollar index is consolidating above 77 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8502; (P) 0.8539; (R1) 0.8566; More EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8671 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that even in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from 0.8497 resistance turned support to contain downside and bring another rise. As noted before, the break of 0.8646 resistance indicates that fall from 0.8940 has finished with three waves down to 0.8284 already. Above 0.8575 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Break of 0.8671 will target medium term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.8810) next. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8497 will dampen this view and put focus back to 0.8284 low. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB To Keep Policy Rate At 1% Despite Higher Inflation PressureThe ECB is expected to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the current monetary policy as 'appropriate' in February. Concerning inflation, President Trichet will regard recent rise in inflation as temporary and stress that the ECB will be act if needed if it sees second-round effects from rising commodity prices. We retain our view that the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged throughout 2011. However, an early rate hike cannot be ruled out if there are signs significant upside pressure from domestic prices. RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged, Expects Limited Impacts From FloodingThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting. |
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Remark: Due to Chinese New Year holidays, next Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 7 Feb. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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