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Daily Report: USD/JPY Rises on Yield, Bernanke Testimony and 10 Year Bond Auction WatchedDollar jumps against yen and Swissy as US treasury yields extend recent rally. The benchmark 10 year yield soared to close at 3.725%, after $32b auction of the three-year notes showed weak demand. US Treasury sold three year notes at annualized yield of 1.349% yesterday, slightly higher than market expectations. However, indirect bidders including foreign central banks bought a mere 27.6% of the notes. That was the lowest level since May 2007 and was well below average of 37% in the past six months. The result raised some concern on the $24b of 10 year debt today and pushed yields higher in general. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 81.95; (P) 82.19; (R1) 82.60; More. USD/JPY's break of 82.45 suggests that rebound from 81.12 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 83.19 resistance. As noted before, break there will affirm our bullish view that rise from 80.93 is resuming and should send USD/JPY through 83.67 resistance to retest 84.49 key resistance. However, below 81.77 minor support will turn focus back to 80.93/81.12 support zone instead. |
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| Special Report |
BOE To Stay Sidelined But The Chance Of Early Rate Hike IncreasingWhile the BOE will very likely leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound, the chance that the central bank will raise interest rates earlier than we had anticipated (4Q11) is increasing. Inflationary pressures have head sharply higher with the annual rate jumping to +3.7% in December from +3.3% in the prior month. The CPI has overshot the upper limit of BOE's target since January 2010. In January, the UK composite PMI rose to 56.5, a level close to where the BOE hiked rates in the past. PMIs rebounded in January from weather-affected readings in December, strengthening the case for a rate hike. While 2 MPC members favored raising interest rates higher, the majority is, however cautious and prefers to see more evidence of recovery before implementing tightening policies. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3575 or sell at 1.3725Although the single currency retreated after rising to 1.3689 yesterday and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.3581-93), however, reckon 1.3575-77 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3508 to 1.3689) would limit downside, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 81.80Despite yesterday's anticipated retreat to 81.77, as the greenback found renewed buying interest there as suggested in our previous update (we recommended to buy dollar at 81.80) and staged a rebound from there, retaining our bullishness for the rise from last week's low at 81.10 to extend gain to 82.80 and then 83.00 but reckon resistance at 83.22 would hold from here Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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