Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-11-11


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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Egypt Drives Risk Aversion, CAD Rises on Trade Surplus

Development in Egypt remains a major theme of the market and continues to drive risk aversion. After President Mubarak defied calls for immediate resignation and insisted to stay, anti-goverment Egyptians pledged to run their biggest demonstrations. US President Obama urged the Egyptian government "to move swiftly to explain the changes that have been made, and to spell out in clear and unambiguous language the step by step process that will lead to democracy and the representative government that the Egyptian people seek." Global equities are mildly lower as investors lighten their position ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, dollar is generally firm against other major currencies.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9655; (R1) 0.9736; More.

USD/CHF rises further to as high as 0.9748 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9782 resistance first. Break there will confirm resumption of rebound from 0.9300 and should target 1.0065 key resistance next. on the downside, below 0.9678 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 0.9523 support and bring another rise.

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Special Report

ECB Unlikely To Raise Interest Rates Despite Higher Inflationary Pressures In Coming Months

The ECB has been increasing concerned about inflationary pressure in the region. While the central bank decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterated current monetary policy as 'appropriate'. Several council members have voiced their worries about rising price levels. Indeed, Eurozone's inflation primarily comes from food and energy prices and these risks should continue to put upward risks to price levels in coming months. That said, the ECB should remain cautious in changing its accommodative policy stance as it's difficult to control food and energy prices through tightening. Moreover, euro's strength and the market's rate hike expectations have helped the central bank to do some of the tightening.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jan F -0.40% -0.50% -0.50%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jan F 2.0% 1.90% 1.90%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jan 1.70% 1.40% 3.40% 3.90%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jan 13.40% 12.70% 12.50% 12.90%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jan 1.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jan 4.80% 4.40% 4.20% 4.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jan 3.20% 3.00% 2.90% 2.60%
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Dec 3.0B -0.3B -0.1B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Dec -40.6B -$40.0B -$38.3B
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Feb P
75 74.2
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.00

As the greenback has continued to move higher, a test of previous resistance at 83.70 would be seen, break there would extend recent upmove to 84.00/10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 84.40/50 and risk from there has increased for a minor correction later today or early next week.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9950

As the greenback has retreated after faltering below this week's high at 0.9988, consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.9865/70 but break of recent low at 0.9832 is needed to confirm downtrend has resumed and extend weakness in wave (iii) for further fall to 0.9800 and eventually towards indicated downside target at 0.9710/15 (100% projection of 1.0210-0.9889 measuring from 1.0035).

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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