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Daily Report: Dollar Capped by Key Near Term Resistance, But Loss Limited after Volatile SessionDollar spiked overnight on middle east tension but loss was then limited after FOMC upgraded growth forecast. Swiss franc, as a safe have currency, was the biggest winner and remains firm in Asian session today. Yesterdays move in the financial markets were mild with crude il capped below 86 level. Markets should resume to normal today as the news fades and focus will turn back to economic data from US, which features January CPI report. Nevertheless, dollar index's second attempt on 78.78 key near term resistance failed and further weakness could trigger steeper selloff in the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2949; (P) 1.3040; (R1) 1.3106; More With 1.3136 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, rebound from 1.2401 has likely finished at 1.3203 on divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further fall should be seen through 38.2% retracement of 1.2401 to 1.3203 at 1.2897 towards 1.2779 support first. On the upside, above 1.3136 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.3203 and above. Nevertheless, we're still treating rebound from 1.2401 as a correction only and hence, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.3286 to limit upside and bring reversal. |
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| Special Report |
Fed Appears More Confident Over US Growth OutlookThe minutes of the January FOMC meeting unveiled that policymakers are more confident that the economic recovery would sustain and strengthened although the pace of improvement in the job market has been rather disappointing. It appeared the more hawkish members would tolerate QE2 to be carried out until expiry but they would not support additional measures. The new set of economic projections showed more upbeat forecasts on growth and employment outlooks while the prospect for inflation remained subdued. BOE Raised Inflation Forecasts, Yet Lowered Growth OutlookThe pound slumped against the US dollar and the euro as the BOE revised lower it growth forecasts despite higher inflationary outlook in the near-term. In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE unveiled the outlook that inflation will most likely fall a little below the target in the second half of 2012, but the risks relative to that most likely path are 'skewed to the upside'. Growth forecasts were revised lower as higher interest rate assumption (1%) was used and GDP growth in 4Q10 was weak. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 84.25Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday's marginal rise to 83.97, a sustained breach below yesterday's low at 83.49 is needed to suggest a temporary top has possibly formed and bring retracement to previous support at 83.09, otherwise, upside risk remains for recent upmove from 81.10 low to extend one more rise to 84.05/10 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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