US economy surprises to the upside again



Link to ForexLive
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FRANKFURT (MNI) – Outgoing European Central Bank Governing Council Member Juergen Stark said the only way to solve the debt crisis is through hard political choices that reduce debt, not more bailout spending. In an interview with the Saturday edition of Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad, Stark said countries need to “spend less and reform more.” [...]
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US retail sales rise 1.1% in September, ex-autos up 0.6%; better than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falls to 57.5 in the early October read from 60.2 in September US business inventories rise 0.5% in September Barclays raises US Q3 GDP forecast to 2.5% from 2.0% Japanese government to unveil new steps against [...]
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Rather than rule on whether China is or is not a currency manipulator, as it is required to do by law every six months, the Obama Treasury has voted “present” and says it will issue the report after the APEC and G20 summits.
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Dow Jones reported earlier that Japan may announce a package of measures to weaken the JPY as early as next week.
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Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, criticised European leaders on Friday for failing to allow the July deal to proceed. He said any greater losses imposed on Greek bondholders could prompt investors to sell the sovereign debt of other eurozone countries, destabilising the single currency. "We do not see that a [...]
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According to Dow Jones, speculators on the IMM added to their net dollar longs, based on data from the CFTC. As of the close of business on Tuesday, Specs were 3% longer the buck than last week. This help explains the continuing short-covering rally in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD this week. Mr. Market loves to [...]
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The fiance ministers must be meeting because there hasn’t been a peep over the wires… Not much to report other than stocks and commodities holding their bid while the euro does the same. It’s all one trade folks, it’s all one trade. 1.3900 barriers and 1.3935 tops from early September are the key levels above [...]
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US DATA: FY2011 budget gap $1.299 tln vs FY2010 gap $1.294 tln, Treasury Dept reports. Sept deficit $64.6 bn vs Sept 2010 deficit $34.6 bn. Sept GSE MBS purchases -$7.4 bn vs Aug -$12.8 bn. Sept outlays related to TARP were $265 mln vs $216 mln in Aug.
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Fiscal year 2011 ends $1.299 trln in red, up from $1.294 trln in FY 2010 2011 deficit 8.7% of GDP versus 2010′s 9.0% September deficit $64.6 bln from $34.6 bln last year
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The area between 1.3830 and 50 provided the expected support and EUR/USD has bounced to the 1.3880 area. News of another military adventure by our Nobel Peace Prize winning president has not seemed to alter the market’s risk appetite any. The S&P has bounced back, still shy of intraday highs from earlier in the day [...]
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If voluntary, no credit event Any decisions taken on EFSF or banks should take effect immediately European countries with fiscal leeway should use it to allow growth
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Approximately 100 troops, to act as advisers to regional allies seeking to remove LRA’s Kony I’m sure this is a vital national interest of the US…
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BNP Downgraded to AA- from AA. The other big French banks have their ratings affirmed, though their stand-alone credit profiles, a component of the ratings, were all lowered to A. The French banking sector as a whole has been lowered to Group 2 from the higher-rated Group 1.
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–adds forecasts to version transmitted at 16:37 GMT Friday Oct Oct Oct DE DE DE Ifo Ifo Ifo Business Current Expectation Climate Situation Median Forecast 106.0 116.9 97.0 High forecast 107.3 117.7 98.0 Low forecast 104.8 105.0 95.0 Previous period 107.5 117.9 98 - Nr of responses 16 11 11 - 4Cast 107.1 117.0 98.0 [...]
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–adds forecasts to version transmitted at 16:37 GMT Friday Oct FR Business Climate - Industry Survey Median Forecast 98.0 High forecast 98.0 Low forecast 96.0 Previous period 99 - Nr of responses 7 - ABN Amro 98.0 BNP Paribas 97.0 Capital Economics 97.0 Commerzbank 98.0 DZ Bank 96.0 Societe Generale 98.0 UBS 98.0 West LB [...]
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Recapitalization is part of crisis effort Europe is fighting contagion risks IMF has enough funds to meet commitments
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Oct EZ Flash Consumer Confidence Median Forecast -20.9 High forecast -19.0 Low forecast -23.0 Previous period -19.1 - Nr of responses 14 - 4Cast -21.0 ABN Amro -21.0 Barclays Cap. -20.7 BNP Paribas -21.0 BoA-ML -21.0 Capital Economics -20.0 Commerzbank -20.0 HSBC -23.0 LBBW -20.0 Nomura -22.0 Standard Chartered -21.5 UBS -20.0 West LB -20.2 [...]
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Oct Oct Sep Sep DE DE DE DE ZEW ZEW PPI PPI Economic Current % % Sentiment Condition m/m y/y Median Forecast -45.0 39.8 0.2 5.3 High forecast -35.0 43.6 0.4 5.7 Low forecast -48.3 33.6 -0.5 4.7 Previous period -43.3 43.6 -0.3 5.5 - Nr of responses 16 8 9 8 - 4Cast -45.0 [...]
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Oct FR Business Climate - Industry Survey Median Forecast 98.0 High forecast 98.0 Low forecast 96.0 Previous period 99 - Nr of responses 7 - ABN Amro 98.0 BNP Paribas 97.0 Commerzbank 98.0 DZ Bank 96.0 Societe Generale 98.0 UBS 98.0 West LB 98.0 ———————————————————————– * Median is based on above forecasts and is not [...]
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But it is in an important support area. Anywhere between 1.3825 and 50 is likely to be met with buying from those who got caught on the surge to 1.3894. Small stops are seen in the 1.3815/20 area but buyers return toward 1.3880/90.
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