Euro and Risk Retreat as Germany Temper Expectation on Summit


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Euro and Risk Retreat as Germany Temper Expectation on Summit

Euro and risk appetite general was hit by comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble today. Bank recapitalization and solution to the European debt crisis have been support risk rebound since last week and markets are hopeful that someone solid will be delivered during this week's EU summit. G20 also urged EU to outline a pan by EU summit on October 23 to "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan." However Schaeuble played down markets expectation and said that won't be a "definitive solution this weekend". Also, Chancellor Merkel's Spokesman Seibert said that the "dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won't be able to be fulfilled."
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3769; (P) 1.3832 (R1) 1.3940; More.
EUR/USD retreats sharply after edging higher to 1.3914 earlier today. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, intraday bias is turned neutral. On the upside, above 1.3914 will extend the rebound from 1.3145 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4548 to 1.3145 at 1.4012, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, break of 1.3685 minor support will indicate that such rebound has likely finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3145 low.
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M (Oct) 2.80%
0.70%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep F 0.60% 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Aug 7.92B 9.23B 11.78B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Oct -8.5 -4 -8.82
13:15 USD Industrial Production Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Sep 77.40% 77.50% 77.40%
14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey



Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3690

Euro’s retreat after intra-day marginal rise to 1.3914 adds credence to our view that a minor top is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement to 1.3723-28 (yesterday’s low and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around previous support at 1.3685 and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove from 1.3145 low to 1.3950/60
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 105.20

Despite last week’s late retreat from 107.03, renewed buying interest emerged at 105.14 and the single currency has risen again on improved risk sentiment, suggesting recent rise from 100.77 low is still in progress and further gain towards 108.01 (wave (1) trough) would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm low has been formed and bring a stronger rebound to 108.90/00 later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights


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