QE3 Talk Stole the Show from EU Summit and Dollar Tumbled


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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

QE3 Talk Stole the Show from EU Summit and Dollar Tumbled

Finance markets struggled in range for most of the week and the situation of European debt crisis remained unclear. Supposedly, we should get something concrete after this Sunday's EU summit but the hope was dented as a second summit was called for this Wednesday. Decisions would be made on Wednesday and the summit on Sunday would most probably be a non-event. However, the markets experienced some drastic developments towards to the end as the speculation of QE3 from Fed suddenly resurfaced. The talk of QE3, as triggered by comments from Fed officials, sent DOW sharply higher to close at 11808, way above the 10404 low set in early October. Dollar was sold off across the board and even dived to new record low against the Japanese yen. The significance of the development is that we're now possibly facing sustainable rally in risks and persistent weakness in dollar ahead.
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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY finally had a downside breakout last week and made new record low at 75.80 before recovering. Some consolidations might be seen initially this week but recovery should be limited by 76.60 minor resistance and bring another fall. Below 75.80 will target 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, a break of 76.60 will turn focus back to 77.48 resistance instead.
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Both BoC and RBNZ Will Stay on the Sideline

Both we and the market anticipate the BOC to hold its policy rate at 1% in October for the 13th consecutive month. The jump in headline inflation in September has probably prevented the central bank to lower interest rates but it would definitely not trigger a rate hike. We expect the central bank will deliver a statement that warns of downside risks in domestic and global economic outlook.
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