Risk Recovered But Vulnerable to EU Summit Uncertainties


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Risk Recovered But Vulnerable to EU Summit Uncertainties

Sentiments improved a bit earlier today news of EFSF guideline document, which showed that there are proposals for the fund to buy bonds on the secondary markets. Spain also carried out solid mid-term bond auctions with lower yield while UK economic data beat expectation. US jobless claims showed modest improvement to 403k while the four week moving averaged dropped to a six month low. Major European indices pared much of earlier loss while US futures point to higher open and dollar weakens mildly. Nevertheless, sentiments are clearly not positive enough yet and markets are generally stuck in range. There are still much skepticism over the outcome of this weekend's EU summit.
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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5695; (P) 1.5771; (R1) 1.5848; More.
GBP/USD continues to stay in tight range of 1.5631/5851 so far and intraday bias remains on neutral. On the downside, below 1.5631 minor support will revive the case that choppy rebound from 1.5271 is finished and will flip bias to the downside for retesting 1.5271 low first. On the upside, though, above 1.5851 will extend such rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103.
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Special Report

US Economic Condition Improved Slightly, Far from Optimistic

The US monthly Beige Book covering the period on the before October 7 indicated that many districts described the pace of growth as 'modest' or 'slight' and there was higher uncertainty for business decision making, although economic activities continued to expand. Consumer spending improved 'slightly' in most districts as driven by auto sales and tourism. Business spending also increased due to the rise in expenditure in construction and mining equipment and auto dealer inventories. Yet, restraints in hiring and capital spending remained. While the October report may be slightly better than the previous one, economic outlook on the US remained uncertain and is highly determined by global factors.
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BOE Voted Unanimously To Expand Asset Purchase, May Add Depending On Economic Conditions

MPC members voted unanimously to expand the asset purchase program by +75B pound to 275B pound as well as to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% in October. The minutes also unveiled that policymakers considered a range of asset purchases of between 50B-100B pound, signaling more buying may come after the current program expires in February. The pound fell against the euro after the report as extension of BOE's QE2 would trigger depreciation in the pound.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q3 -4
6 5
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Sep 0.30% 0.20% -0.30%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Sep 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Sep 1.85B 1.37B 0.81B 0.76B
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.60% 0.20% -0.10% -0.40%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 0.40% 0.60% -0.10% -1.00%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Sep 0.60% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Sep 0.60% 0.60% 0.00% -0.80%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Oct -54.4
-75.7
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 403K 400K 404K 409K
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Aug 0.20% 0.40% 0.80%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct A
-20.1 -19.1
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Sep
4.90M 5.03M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Sep
0.20% 0.30%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Oct
-9.5 -17.5
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
111B 112B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

CHF: Despite rising initially to 0.9082 earlier in Asia, the greenback ran into heavy offers there and tumbled on the back of sharp fall in EUR/CHF (stops below 1.2350 and 1.2300 were triggered and the pair slipped to a low of 1.2280), the release of strong Swiss Oct ZEW survey (4-month high) also helped lifting the Swiss franc, stops at 0.9020, 0.9000 and 0.8940 were all tripped, however, bids from French and Swiss names are still noted at 0.8900-10 and mixture of bids and stops is tipped further out at 0.8870-80. On the upside, offers are lowered to 0.8990-00 and further out at 0.9050 with stops building up above said resistance at 0.9082.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5720

As cable has eased after intra-day rebound from 1.5690 to 1.5803, suggesting further consolidation would be seen but reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5740) would limit downside and bring another rebound. Above said resistance would extend gain to 1.5848 (yesterday’s high) but break of recent high of 1.5853 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain towards 1.5890/00
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0130

Despite yesterday’s rise to 1.0354, the subsequent retreat from there has retained our view that further consolidation below indicated resistance at 1.0372 would take place and pullback to 1.0130/40 cannot be ruled out, however, indicated previous support at 1.0102-07 should hold, bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance is needed to extend the rise from 0.9388 low in wave B to 1.0434
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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