USDCAD Dips after BoC, EUR/CHF Jumped on Negative Rates Talks


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USDCAD Dips after BoC, EUR/CHF Jumped on Negative Rates Talks

Canadian dollar strengthened mildly after BoC kept rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. Bank rate and deposit rate were also kept unchanged at 1.2.5% and 0.75% respectively. In the accompanying statement, most importantly, BoC noted again that "some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required" to meet the 2% inflation target. The tightening bias is providing a little boost to the loonie. Regarding global economy, BoC noted that fiscal cliff uncertainty is holding back US recovery but Chinese growth "appears to be stabilizing". In Canada, Q3 was "weak" due to "transitory disruptions in the energy sector." But BoC expects "the pace of economic growth is expected to pick up through 2013." The central bank also reiterated challenges of Canadian dollar's persistent strength".
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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9927; (P) 0.9939; (R1) 0.9964; More...
USD/CAD dips in early US session but is so far staying in recent tight range. Intraday bias remains neutral. While another fall cannot be ruled out, as long as 0.9874 support holds, near term outlook stays cautiously bullish. Rise from 0.9633 is still in favor to continue. Above 0.9981 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0056 first. But sustained break of 0.9874 will argue that whole rise from 0.9633 is already completed and will turn near term outlook bearish.
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Special Reports

RBA Lowers Cash Rate To 3%

The RBA lowered it cash rate by -25 bps to 3% in December. The current policy rate is now at the lowest level since October 2009 and the easing trend will likely continue through 2013. The rate cut has been widely anticipated by the market as the central bank struggles to stimulate domestic economy. Governor Glenn Stevens warned of strong Australian dollar and stated that the near-term outlook for non mining investment would remain 'relatively subdued'.
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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Nov
00:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q3 -14.9B -14.7B -11.8B -12.4B
00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Oct -7.60% -1.60% 7.80% 9.50%
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00% 3.25%
09:30 GBP PMI Construction Nov 49.3 50.5 50.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.00% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct 2.60% 2.50% 2.70%
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head north since European session, option players pulled out their offers at 1.3090 and stops above 1.3100 barrier are in focus, however, sell orders from large corps are scattered from 1.3120 up to 1.3150 (where another barrier is located) with next batch of buy stop orders tipped above there. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3060-65 and also at 1.3040-45, then from 1.3020 down to 1.3000, more buying interests are located at 1.2970-80 with sell stop orders located below 1.2970 and 1.2950, mixture of bids and stops is located around 1.2930-40, more buying interests are noted at 1.2900-10 and combination of bids and stops is expected at 1.2870-80.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3025

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after recent rally, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.3100 would be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3125-30 and reckon previous resistance at 1.3140 would hold on first testing, price should falter well below recent high of 1.3172, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0400

The Australian dollar found renewed buying interests at 1.0393 and has staged a rebound in line with our expectations, adding credence to our bullishness and test of indicated resistance at 1.0491 would be seen, a break of this level would signal recent rise from 1.0149 has resumed and extend gain towards 1.0525-30 but break of 1.0550-60 is needed to indicate the fall from 1.0625 top has ended, then an eventual retest of this level would follow
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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