Euro Extends Rally as China Stocks Lead Asian Equities Higher


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Euro Extends Rally as China Stocks Lead Asian Equities Higher

Strong rally in China stock markets led Asian equities higher today and pressured dollar and yen. Euro has been the relatively stronger one this week and also supported rally in EUR/CHF, which was triggered by talk of negative interest rates on Swiss Franc deposits. EUR/USD continues its rally and is staying comfortably above 1.31 level for the moment. EUR/USD is set to take on 1.3171 key near term resistance soon. EUR/JPY also leads other yen crosses higher and is edging closer to 108 level. Though, commodity currencies lag behind again. Aussie's rally is limited as Q3 GDP missed expectations and grew 0.5% qoq only. Looking ahead, UK PMI services will be the main focus in European session, together with Osborne's Autumn forecast statement. US will release ADP employment as well as ISM services.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.98; (P) 107.18; (R1) 107.45; More
EUR/JPY is picking up momentum again and soars to as high as 107.95 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise from 100.32, which is part of the rally from 94.11, should target 100% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 110.79 next, which is close to 111.43 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 105.27 support and bring rally resumption.
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Special Reports

BOC Leaves Policy Rate at 1%, Stating Fiscal Cliff as the key Uncertainty in US

As expected, the BOC left the overnight rate target at 1%, with Bank Rate and deposit rate at 1.25% and 0.75% respectively. While a more dovish tone regarding both global and domestic economic developments was delivered in the statement than the October one, the central bank retained the view that withdrawal of some of the stimulus might be required.
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RBA Lowers Cash Rate To 3%

The RBA lowered it cash rate by -25 bps to 3% in December. The current policy rate is now at the lowest level since October 2009 and the easing trend will likely continue through 2013. The rate cut has been widely anticipated by the market as the central bank struggles to stimulate domestic economy. Governor Glenn Stevens warned of strong Australian dollar and stated that the near-term outlook for non mining investment would remain 'relatively subdued'.
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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Nov 1.50% 1.50%
0:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q3 0.50% 0.60% 0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Nov F 51 50.6
9:30 GBP PMI Services Nov 51 50.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.20% -0.20%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Nov 125K 158K
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 F 2.70% 1.90%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 F -0.90% -0.10%
15:00 USD Factory Orders Oct 0.00% 4.80%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Nov 53.5 54.2
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M -0.3M
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head north since European session, option players pulled out their offers at 1.3090 and stops above 1.3100 barrier are in focus, however, sell orders from large corps are scattered from 1.3120 up to 1.3150 (where another barrier is located) with next batch of buy stop orders tipped above there. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3060-65 and also at 1.3040-45, then from 1.3020 down to 1.3000, more buying interests are located at 1.2970-80 with sell stop orders located below 1.2970 and 1.2950, mixture of bids and stops is located around 1.2930-40, more buying interests are noted at 1.2900-10 and combination of bids and stops is expected at 1.2870-80.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3025

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after recent rally, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.3100 would be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3125-30 and reckon previous resistance at 1.3140 would hold on first testing, price should falter well below recent high of 1.3172, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0400

The Australian dollar found renewed buying interests at 1.0393 and has staged a rebound in line with our expectations, adding credence to our bullishness and test of indicated resistance at 1.0491 would be seen, a break of this level would signal recent rise from 1.0149 has resumed and extend gain towards 1.0525-30 but break of 1.0550-60 is needed to indicate the fall from 1.0625 top has ended, then an eventual retest of this level would follow
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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