Spain’s De Guindos: Banking union is fundamental to end doubts over the Euro

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• Schaeuble: Would be very difficult to get approval by German parliament if all banks were included in supervision by ECB
• More Nowotny: Euro functions as currency
• Latest on the Swiss bank stuff
• ECB’s Nowotny: Fears contraction of economy in Southern European countries will continue in 2013
• UK Nov construction PMI falls to 49.3…
• EU’s Barnier : ECB should be able to supervise any bank
• EUR/CHF extends rally
• AUD/USD grinds higher…
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield off 3 bps at 5.23%
• USD/JPY sees some slight slippage in early Europe
• Spain’s November jobless rises 1.5% m/m
• Spain’s De Guindos: Banking union is fundamental to end doubts over the Euro
• Sweden’s FinMin Borg: Compromise on ECB supervision of banks possible on Tuesday
• Danish Fin Min Vestager: Enormous strength seen if non-euro states are able to join supervisor
• Is everybody happy?
• Updated option expiries
• Today’s orderboard
• European stocks seen opening marginally lower
• Gold takes an early tumble
• We could do with a real BIG tape bomb round about now

Schaeuble: Would be very difficult to get approval by German parliament if all banks were included in supervision by ECB Posted:

More Nowotny: Euro functions as currency Posted: Yippeeeeeeee!!! EU has no permanent transfer system like U.S. EFSF, ESM are no permanent transfer mechanism Political EU union not needed for euro survival (just as well) EU treaty change would mean uncertainty

Latest on the Swiss bank stuff Posted: Latest talk now has the major Swiss bank charging a minimum of -0.75% on institutional bank holdings above 100 million.

ECB’s Nowotny: Fears contraction of economy in Southern European countries will continue in 2013 Posted: I think we already knew this,  didn’t we boys and girls? Europe needs France-Germany harmony (such a drama queen) Monetary policy ‘difficult’ amid country differences Yields, spreads have stabilized Stabilization after Draghi’s OMT announcement Greece is a special problem, will need longer Debt levels becoming more important than deficits Crucial that countries don’t depend on markets Crucial lesson to avoid external funding dependence Austria must stick to fiscal discipline Bloomberg reporting.

UK Nov construction PMI falls to 49.3… Posted: ..from 50.9 in October and also below Reuters forecast of 50.5 Lowest level for nearly 4 years and comes just a day before the bi annual budget statement that George Osborne will be delivering to parliament

EU’s Barnier : ECB should be able to supervise any bank Posted: Single bank supervisor important for stability Opposes a 2-tier supervisory system Threshold for ECB oversight should be low ECB should pick the supervisory board chairman, approaching ‘very good compromise’ on supervisor Supports 1 member 1 vote on supervisory board EU is open to treaty revision on ECB supervision

EUR/CHF extends rally Posted: Amid talk a major Swiss bank will impose 1.0% charge on swiss franc balances over 100 million (chunky negative interest rate!!) Cross up at 1.2125.

AUD/USD grinds higher… Posted: Steady buying from macro names was apparently behind the drive to a fresh day’s high of 1.0471 which ran into importer offers just ahead of some buy stops now placed at 1.0480. Larger offers also lurk ahead of the 1.0500 barrier with likely heavy buy stops just above . Tech resistance lies above at  1.0515/20 ( Sept 21 high 1.0519) ahead of 76.4% fibonacci retracement of the 1.0857-0.9581 fall at 1.0558 and  stronger resistance in the 1.0564/69 highs  17/13 Sept highs) AUD’s since backed off a bit to 1.0467

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield off 3 bps at 5.23% Posted: Italian 10 year govt bond yield also off 3 bps at 4.42%. EUR/USD touch firmer again at 1.3078. Helped by some further buying of  the EUR/CHF cross, which is up over 1.2100 presently at session high 1.2110. UPDATE:  Swiss banks behind the cross buying. I shit you not

USD/JPY sees some slight slippage in early Europe Posted: We’ve slipped through 82.00, presently at 81.92 having been as low as 81.87 (EBS) Talk of sell stops through 81.85 before buy orders clustered 81.50/70 and then more stops through 81.50. I get the sense (but no real confirmation) that the stops through 81.50 could be rather lumpy.

Spain’s November jobless rises 1.5% m/m Posted: By 74,296 people to 4.9 mln. Ughh

Spain’s De Guindos: Banking union is fundamental to end doubts over the Euro Posted: Eurogroup recognizes Spanish budget and reform efforts (Bloomberg)

Sweden’s FinMin Borg: Compromise on ECB supervision of banks possible on Tuesday Posted: How exciting EUR/USD hits new session high 1.3077.

Danish Fin Min Vestager: Enormous strength seen if non-euro states are able to join supervisor Posted: Need to be able to join up on an equal footing Possible to resolve  open supervisor issues today Need to work out EBA role to represent all EU countries Common supervisor has to work closely with national ones Bloomberg reporting

Is everybody happy? Posted: YOU BET YOUR LIFE WE ARE!! EUR/USD up at  1 .3064 from the 1.3052 which greeted me, having been up to the dizzying heights of 1.3072 (EBS) at one stage. Sources note a modicum of real money buying in this latest rallyette.

Updated option expiries Posted: For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut: EUR/USD: 1.2975, 1.2990 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3050 USD/JPY: 81.00 (3bln), 81.30, 82.00, 82.35, 82.50, 83.00 EUR/JPY: 107.00 EUR/GBP: 0.8020, 0.8100 GBP/USD: 1.6000 AUD/USD: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500

Today’s orderboard Posted: EUR/USD:  Bids 1.3040/45, 1.3020/25 and 1.3000/10. Offers 1.3065/75  ahead of offers tech res Oct 22 high 1.3084 and offers 1.3090/00 ( 1.3100 barrier), likely buy stops above GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6085/95, 1.6050/60possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.6000/10. Offers 1.6105/20 (Mon high 1.6116, Oct 5 high 1.6117), likely buy stops above through 1.6140 ahead of offers 1.6170/80 EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8125/35 ahead of larger offers 0.8145/60 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids 0.8105/15 and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops just below, tech supp/options at 0.8060/70 (200 day MA 0.8062, daily cloud top 0.8064), more bids 0.8040/50 USD/JPY: Bids 82.00/10 sell stops below  and through 81.85 but stronger bids 81.50/70 with sell stops on a break.Tech res tenkan line 82.26 ahead of offers 82.40/50 (exporters) buy stops through 82.80 ahead of large offers 82.90/00 (barrier 83.00) very large buy stops just above. EUR/JPY:  Offers 107.40/50, 107.60/70 buy stops above ahead of offers 107.90/00  with more buy stops above. Bids 106. 95/05, and 106.70/80, sell stops below .  More bids 106.45/55, sell stops below and through 106.00 AUD/JPY:  Bids 85.45/55 ( 85.81  tenkan line) likely sell stops through 85.40 and 85.20 ahead of  tech supp 85.00/10, sell stops below through 85.00. Offers 85.90/00 and 86.15/25, tech res 86.40/50 (Apr 2 high 86.50), likely buy stops above. Ahead of tech res 86.70/75 (86.74 Apr 2 high) AUD/USD: Bids 1.0410/20 and 1.0390/00, sell stops through 1.0385, (100 day MA 1.0391, cloud top 1.0387)  ahead of large bids 1.0350/60 with more sell stops below. Offers 1.0470/80 (importers), ahead of barrier interest at 1.0500) large buy stops above ahead of offers/tech res 1.2510/20 (Sep 21 high 1.5019) EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2485/95 and 1.2450/60 ahead of tech supp 1.2410/20 (200 day MA at 1.2412). Offers 1.2540/50 ahead of tech res cloud top1.2565 and offers 1.2570/80, buy stops above. NZD/USD: Bids 0.8200/10 tech support 0.8170/80 and 0.8130/40 (daily cloud base 0.8138) . Offers 0.82325/35, strong offers 0.8260/70 possible buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 0.8290/0.8310 (Nov 7 high 0.8309)

European stocks seen opening marginally lower Posted: Financial bookies see European stocks opening marginally lower;  FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 all down as much as -0.3%.

Gold takes an early tumble Posted: Stop losses were triggered down through $1710 and $1705 briefly breaching the psychological $1700  to lows around $1698.75 before a weak bounce back to $1704. The dip was halted around the 100 day MA currrently $1698.50 which is providing support ahead of the 200 day MA down at $1662.60. Gold is presently trading around $1702.70

We could do with a real BIG tape bomb round about now Posted: I jotted down my closing North American EUR/USD level Monday as 1.3052 and we’re presently at……………1.3052. Nothing of consequence on the euro zone economic data front today Buy orders seen clustered 1.3040/45 and more 1.3020/25, sell orders clustered 1.3065/75 and more up at 1.3090/00 ahead of 1.3100 barrier option interest. Might pop out and do a spot of Christmas shopping later this morning.