Risk Rebounded on European Hope But Fades after Spain Downgrade


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Risk Rebounded on European Hope But Fades after Spain Downgrade

Risk staged a strong rebound in overnight's session on rumor of progress in expanding the rescue fund. But such rebound then lost momentum in Asia after Moody's downgrade of Spain's credit rating. Despite a brief break of 11326 minor support, DOW managed to rebound strongly to close at 11577, up 180pts. EUR/USD managed to recovery from yesterday's low of 1.3652 but is kept well below this week's high of 1.3914. Dollar index is back below 77 after failing to take out 78 level at first attempt. Yen also pared some gains on report that the Japanese government and BOJ are forming a team to address the strong yen.
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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0080; (P) 1.0172; (R1) 1.0232; More.
USD/CAD's recovery was limited below 1.0272 and retreated sharply since then and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We'd still expect downside of the fall from 1.0656 to be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 1.0031 which is close to 1.0009 support and bring rebound. Above 1.0272 will suggest that such pull back is finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0656 first. Nevertheless, note that break of 1.0043 resume the fall from 1.0656 towards 0.9725 support and below.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug -0.50% -0.40% 0.40%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug
-7.3B -12.9B
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes
0--0--9 0--0--9
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Sep

0.00%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Sep
0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Sep
3.80% 3.80%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Sep
0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Sep
2.10% 2.00%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Sep
592K 571K
12:30 USD Building Permits Sep
610K 620K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

1.3M
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book



Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8950

Although the greenback retreated from yesterday’s high of 0.9048 to overnight low of 0.8949, as dollar has rebounded after holding above yesterday’s low at 0.8947, further consolidation would be seen and as long as this support holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound. A break of said resistance at 0.9048 would bring retracement of recent decline to towards 0.9075/80 but reckon upside would be limited to 0.9101
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Target met and stand aside

Despite yesterday’s fall to 1.3653, the single currency did find renewed buying interest there as suggested and staged the anticipated rebound (our long position entered at 1.3660 met target at 1.3780 with 120 points profit), renewed buying interest emerged this morning at 1.3725 and gain to 1.3850/60 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to confirm the correction from 1.3914 has ended at 1.3653 and bring resumption of recent upmove for a retest of 1.3914
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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