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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Risk Appetite Recedes Mildly as ECB Warned of PSIRisk appetite recedes mildly after ECB monthly bulletin warned that private-sector involvement in Greece bailout would have "direct negative effects" on Eurozone's banking sector. The bank noted that PSI will certainly place "significant stress" on bank solvency and have impact of balance sheets. And that would trigger the need for "large-scale" banks recapitalization. Even if the economic fundamentals before and after application PSI are unchanged, the could be "sudden increase in risk aversion" and market access of some countries "maybe hampered. And the bank warned that would eventually damage the reputation of the Euro. The comments revive some concerns that investors would need much more than the anticipated 21% write down on Greek bond holding, and could be as much as 50%.Full Report Here... |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3634; (P) 1.3734 (R1) 1.3885; More.With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 1.3833 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Nevertheless, another rise in EUR/USD will remain in favor as long as 1.3565 minor support holds and above 1.3833 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4548 to 1.3145 at 1.4012, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, though, break of 1.3565 will indicate that rebound from 1.3145 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting this low. Read more... |
| Special Reports |
Fed Favors Improving Communication, Balance Sheet Expansion Appears Unlikely Unless Deflation Fear ReturnsSome new information was delivered in the September FOMC minutes. First, most policymakers lowered their forecasts for the rest of 2011 and 2012. Yet, recession is not their concerns. Second, most members saw advantages in improving communication regarding the goals for inflation and unemployment. However, there were concerns about a proper mechanism to avoid misunderstanding. Moreover, 3 policy options for managing the size and composition of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) were discussed during the meeting: a reinvestment maturity extension program, a SOMA portfolio maturity extension program, and a large-scale asset purchase program. While the second option, known as operation twist, has been chosen, 2 members favored stronger action while 3 members dissented to take additional accommodation'.Read more... |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback reversed yesterday's gain and slipped from the 1-month high of 77.49 back to its usual 76.70 level and further consolidation is likely to take place. Criticism from the Democratic Party on government's measures of intervention and monetary easing pushed the yen higher. Bids at 76.90-00 were absorbed but buying interest is still seen at 76.50-60 and further out at 76.30-40 with stops building up below 76.30 and 76.00 option barrier. On the upside, offers are now seen from 77.00 up to 77.50 (every 10 points interval) with stops building up above 77.50 and further out above 77.90-00.Read more... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5595As the British pound has remained under pressure after intra-day retreat from 1.5762, retaining our view that consolidation below yesterday’s high of 1.5798 would take place and near term downside risk remains for retracement to1.5641 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5544-1.5798), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5596 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5270 to 1.5798) and bring another rise later.Read more... Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold long entered at 1.0150Despite yesterday’s decline to 1.0133, the subsequent rebound has retained our near term bottomish view and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for rebound to resistance area at 1.0329-38, however, break there is needed to confirm low is formed and bring a stronger rebound to 1.0410/20. Looking ahead, it is necessary to see a breach of resistance at 1.0480-90 to signal the correction from 1.0658 has ended.Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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