Euro Mildly Higher on Franco-German Pledge


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Euro Mildly Higher on Franco-German Pledge

Euro opens the week mildly firmer after Germany and France pledged to provide sustainable solution to Greece situation and the European debt crisis, as well as bank recapitalization by the end of the month, before the G20 summit in Cannes. Meetings including European Council and EU finance ministers will be held to finalize the details of the proposal. France Sarkozy noted that they will "recapitalize the banks", in "complete agreement" with Germany and they will take a common position on all issues. Germany Merkel noted that there will be a "comprehensive package that will enable closer cooperation between euro zone countries" and that could include changes to the Lisbon treaty.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.19; (P) 103.02; (R1) 103.51; More
With 101.65 minor support intact, EUR/JPY's recovery from 100.74 could extend further higher. But after all, we'd maintain that break of 104.92 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish and recent decline is still in favor to continue. Below 101.65 should flip bias back to the downside and end EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level towards 200% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 97.94. Though, break of 104.92 will confirm short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rise to 106.98 and above.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug 13.8B 9.8B 10.1B
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Oct
-19 -15.4


JP US CA Holidays



Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated quite sharply in late NY trading last Friday on downgrading of Italy (1 notch, AA- to A+) and Spain (2 notch, AA+ to AA-) by Fitch (plus a negative watch on Portugal), however, the single currency found decent demand below 1.340 and the pair rebounded quite sharply from Friday's low of 1.3360 partly on news that Merkel and Sarkozy pledged to recapitalize banks by end of the month. Stops at 1.3480 were triggered but offers are still noted at 1.3490-00 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3520-30, more selling interest is likely to emerge around 1.3550 and further out at 1.3590/00. On the downside, bids are tipped at 1.3430-40 and further out at 1.3390/00 and mixture of bids from European names and stops are located at 1.3340-60. Option expires today include 1.3280 (100 mln), 1.3300 (100 mln) and 1.3400 (100 mln)
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3390

Although the single currency has rebounded after Friday’s retreat from 1.3525 to 1.3360, above said resistance is needed to signal near term rise from 1.3145 low has resumed and bring a stronger retracement of recent decline for further gain towards1.3555 (1.236 times projection of 1.3145-1.3398 measuring from 1.3242), however, overbought condition should prevent sharp rise beyond there and reckon 1.3590/00 would hold from here, bring retreat later.
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.35

Despite Friday’s rebound to 76.93, the greenback retreated again after meeting offers from exporters, suggesting further sideways trading would take place and near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 77.27 to extend marginal weakness to 76.34, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon downside would be limited and support at 76.10 should hold, bring another rebound later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights



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