Impact of Spain Downgrade Limited, Markets Consolidate


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Impact of Spain Downgrade Limited, Markets Consolidate

Dollar is staying in tight range against major currencies for the moment as it's recovery lacks strength. Some support was seen on mild risk aversion after S&P downgraded Spain while Fitch warned of downgrade of some global banks. But the impact is rather limited so far. EUR/USD is around 1.37/8 level while GBP/USD is trading around 1.57/8. AUD/USD is also firm at around 1.01/02. Dollar index breaches 77 level again is possibly extending recent decline from 79.83 towards 76.06 support. We'd maintain our view that risk markets are losing momentum ahead of key resistance zone and would remain cautious on reversal signal ahead. But, it's not the time yet.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.19; (P) 105.87; (R1) 106.63; More
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place in EUR/JPY at 107.04, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 117.74 to 100.74 at 107.23 and near term falling channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral. On the downside, below 104.01 minor support will suggest that rebound from 100.74 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low. ON the upside, though, break of 107.04 will possibly bring stronger rally towards 61.8% retracement at 111.24.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Sep 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Sep 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
2:00 CNY CPI Y/Y Sep 6.10% 6.10% 6.20%
2:00 CNY PPI Y/Y Sep 6.50% 6.90% 7.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug
-1.1B -2.5B
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Sep
0.80% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep
3.00% 3.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Sep
1.50% 1.20%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Aug
0.50% 2.70%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Sep
-0.40% -0.40%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Sep
0.50% 0.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Sep
0.20% 0.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Oct P
60 59.4
14:00 USD Business Inventories Aug
0.40% 0.40%
Forex Trade Ideas
Next Ichimoku & Candlestick Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 17 Oct.
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
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