Risk Appetite Recedes on Profit Taking, Awaits Slovakia Vote


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Risk Appetite Recedes on Profit Taking, Awaits Slovakia Vote

Risk appetite recedes mildly as markets are awaiting Slovakia's vote on beefing up the EFSF funds. Slovakia is the last of the seventeen countries in Eurozone to vote on the agreement made on July 21 on expanding the EFSF fund and enhancing its power. There are mild concern on the outcome as the right-of-center coalition government is divided over its support for the vote. The major opposition party could vote for a repeat vote after a government reshuffle. Traders are concerned on the possibility of delay.
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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5439; (P) 1.5542; (R1) 1.5663; More.
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for the moment. Below 1.5527 minor support will indicate that recovery from 1.5271 has completed and will flip bias to the downside for retesting this low first. On the upside, break of 1.5715 will confirm a short term bottom is formed at 1.5271 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rise would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103 before staging another decline.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Sep -23.00% -24.00% -23.00%
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Sep 0.30% -0.90% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (JPY) Aug 0.65T 0.51T 0.75T
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Sep -2
-8
05:00 JPY Household Consumer Confidence Sep 38.6 37.2 37
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Economic Report



06:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Sep 45.3 46.5 47.3
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.20% -0.20% -0.20% -0.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug -1.00% -1.20% -0.70% -0.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug -0.30% -0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug 1.50% 1.60% 1.90% 2.60%
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Aug -1.30% 2.30% -1.50%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Sep 206K 186.1K 184.7K
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Sep 0.5%
0.20%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rallied on Merkel's and Sarkozy's pledge to solve EU debt crisis, euro retreated in part due to weakness in European stock markets, bids at 1.3600 were absorbed, however, bids are still noted from 1.3570 to 1.3550 and also at 1.3525-30 and mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3490-00. On the upside, some offers are noted at 1.3630 and 1.3660/65 with fair size stops placed above latter level, however, sizeable offers remain sitting at 1.3690-00 with more stops planted above option barrier at 1.3700.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9160

Dollar’s rebound after holding above yesterday’s low at 0.9004 suggests near term upside risk is for retracement of yesterday’s decline to 0.9147 (previous support as well as 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9290-0.9004), however, reckon 0.9162 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9319-0.9004) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9004 would extend the decline from 0.9319 top for a stronger correction of recent upmove to 0.8980/85
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3500

As the single currency has remained under pressure after intra-day brief bounce to 1.3673, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from yesterday’s high of 1.3699 to bring retracement of recent rise to 1.3524-30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3242-1.3699, previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3360-1.3699), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3502) should limit downside and bring another rise later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights


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