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Yen Retreats on Warnings by Japanese OfficialsThe greenback finally staged a rebound after falling to 76.29 yesterday (just few ticks above historical low of 76.25 made in March) on speculation that Japanese officials will take action in the forex market to curb yen's rally, the Japanese currency also slipped versus the euro after Japan's MOF Yoshihiko Noda warned that the country's currency is overvalued and he is watching forex market especially carefully. Investors believed that Japanese officials are concerned that yen's strength will hurt exporter and damage the economy recovery from disaster earthquake and tsunami in March. Although the Finance Minister declined to comment on Nikkei article about MOF is getting ready to intervene in the FX market, he did say that he was discussing currency policy with several parties. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.29; (P) 77.17; (R1) 78.04; More. USD/JPY dips to as low as 76.28, just inch above mentioned 76.71 will target 100% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 76.27 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral again for some more sideway consolidations. But after all, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 78.46 resistance holds and further decline is still expected ahead. Below 76.28 will target a test on 75.98 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 78.46 will indicate short term bottoming and should bring strong rebound back into 79.56/82.22 resistance zone instead. |
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RBA Stands Aside Despite Concerns About InflationThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While this was the consensus forecast, a handful of analysts had anticipated a rate hike while some expected a cut. The split reflected the uncertainty in Australia's economy which is facing both the risk of slowdown and the threat of higher inflation. Apart from domestic economic developments, the central bank's decision was also affected by debt problems in the US and Eurozone. While policymakers in both sides of the Atlantic have agreed on measures that helped alleviate near-term concerns, long-term plans are still unavailable to solve the core problems – to lower deficits. ECB To Stand Aside In August But Will Continue To 'Monitor' Price Stability 'Very Closely'As economic and sentiment data released since the last meeting have weakened, the ECB will put more focus on the downside risk in economic growth in the August meeting. Therefore, we believe the central bank will keep the main refinancing rate at 1.5% and non-standard measures unchanged. In the accompanying statement, the ECB will reiterate that it will 'monitor very closely' on the upside risks to price stability but should not signal any rate hike in the next meeting. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Stand asideDespite falling sharply to as low as 76.29 yesterday, as dollar has rebounded after holding above previous record low at 76.25 (formed in March), we are keeping our view that consolidation above this level would take place, however, break of resistance area at 78.05-17 to confirm a temporary low is formed at 76.29 and bring stronger rebound to 78.50 but still reckon resistance at 78.75 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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