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USD/CHF Rebounds on Surprised Rate Cut by Swiss National BankThe greenback finally rebounded today from record low of 0.7610 on broad-based retreat in Swiss franc after Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut interest rates, the SNB narrowed down its target range for the 3-month Libor from 0.00%-0.75% to 0.0%-0.25%. The central bank also expand its sight deposits to 80 billion Swiss francs from 30 billion francs, SNB also gave comments that the Swiss franc is 'massively overvalued'. The central bank's moves are giving the market a clear message that the central bank wants to see a weaker Swiss franc and decisive strong measures will be taken. EUR/CHF rebounded quickly from record low of 1.0795 to as high as 1.1149 and Swissy also jumped to 0.7788 before retreating, some offers from Swiss corporates are reported at 0.7800 and further out at 0.7850 with stops building up above 0.7880 and 0.7900. |
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EUR/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0694; (P) 1.0950; (R1) 1.1079; More EUR/CHF's strong recovery indicates that a temporary low is formed at 1.0974. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment for some sideway consolidations. But upside of recovery is expected to be limited below 1.1404 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0794 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2344 to 1.1404 from 1.1891 at 1.0372 next. |
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SNB Goes For Quantitative Easing As Franc Appreciates SharplyThe SNB surprised the market by announcing it narrowed the target range for the 3-month Libor from 0.00-0.75% to 0.00- 0.25% and is aiming to lower it to 'as close to zero as possible'. Moreover, the central bank will 'very significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market over the next few days'. The unexpected move has been driven by the sharp appreciation in CHF as investors fled to safe-haven assets. Swiss Franc Retreats after Surprised SNB Cut, But No Change in Up TrendIn a surprised move, Swiss National Bank cut interest rates today aiming at curbing further appreciation of the "massively overvalued" Swiss Franc. USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF all made new record lows earlier this week but recovered strongly after the announcement. Nevertheless, upside of these pairs are still limited well below key near term resistance levels. Considering that gold has just made another record high at 1675 today, markets are still all in risk averse mode. Thus, we're treat today's pull back in swiss franc as nothing more than a pull back. Further strength is still expected ahead after the noise fades. ECB To Stand Aside In August But Will Continue To 'Monitor' Price Stability 'Very Closely'As economic and sentiment data released since the last meeting have weakened, the ECB will put more focus on the downside risk in economic growth in the August meeting. Therefore, we believe the central bank will keep the main refinancing rate at 1.5% and non-standard measures unchanged. In the accompanying statement, the ECB will reiterate that it will 'monitor very closely' on the upside risks to price stability but should not signal any rate hike in the next meeting. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.7855Despite intra-day fall to fresh record low of 0.7610, the subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.7810), however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 0.7857 and bring retreat later. Below 0.7685-90 would suggest intra-day top is possibly formed and bring weakness to 0.7660 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0885Yesterday’s selloff signals a temporary top has been formed at 1.1081 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to 1.0654 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0390-1.1081), however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0600 and 1.0560/65 should hold, bring another rise later this month. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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