Euro Rebounds after Better-than-Expected U.S. NFP

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Euro Rebounds after Better-than-Expected U.S. NFP

Although the single currency dropped to a 2-week low of 1.4055 against the greenback earlier today, euro continued to edge higher throughout the day on short-covering as European Central Bank started buying Portugal and Irish government bonds which eased pressure on Italian and Spanish peripheral debt. Rebound in Dow futures on the release of better-than-expected U.S. job reports also seen helping euro to rebound on risk appetite, U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased to 117,000 versus market forecast of 98K and unemployment rate also came in lower at 9.1% from previous month’s and analysts’ expectations of 9.2%.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3995; (P) 1.4183 (R1) 1.4278; More.

With 1.4371 minor resistance intact, EUR/USD's choppy fall from 1.4537 is still in favor to continue. And current fall would possibly extend through 1.4014 support medium term trend line at 1.3819. On the upside, above 1.4371 will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 1.4537 resistance.

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Special Reports

ECB Extends Liquidity Injection, Reactivates SMP

The ECB voted unanimously to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5%. In the accompanying statement, the central bank also announced some liquidity injection measures. The most important news was that President Trichet signaled the Securities Market Program (SMP) has been re-activated. Concerning the monetary policy outlook, the ECB reiterated that it will monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. This suggested no rate hike in the next meeting.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 103.2 103.4 99.6 99.4
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.80% -0.60% -0.20%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul 0.50% 0.70% 0.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul 0.60% 0.70% 0.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul 18.50% 18.70% 17.00% 16.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul 5.90% 5.80% 5.70%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 3.30% 3.20% 3.20%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jun -1.10% 0.00% 1.20%
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 7.20% 7.40% 7.40%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul 7.1K 20.0K 28.4K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 2.10% -5.00% 20.90%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jul 117K 98K 18K 46K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 9.10% 9.20% 9.20%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jul 45.4 64.6 68.2
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7640

Failure to extend intra-day rebound and the subsequent retreat from 0.7740 suggest further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as record low at 0.7610 (formed earlier this week) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound but break of yesterday’s high of 0.7801 is needed to retain bullishness and signal a temporary low has been formed, bring retracement of recent decline towards previous resistance at 0.7857.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell again at 1.4180

Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.4220, as the single currency has retreated after the release of better-than-expected U.S. NFP and unemployment rate data, suggesting top is possibly formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness towards 1.4055, however, break there is needed to extend decline from 1.4537 top for weakness towards previous support at 1.4015

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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