Currency Markets Calm While Risk Aversion Dominates Markets

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Currency Markets Calm While Risk Aversion Dominates Markets

Risk aversion continues to dominate the financial markets in Asian session today. Following the nearly -420 pts fall in DOW, Asian equities are broadly lower with Korea KS11 down most by more than -5%, Australian all ordinaries down -3% while Japan Nikkei, Hong Kong HSI and Singapore Straits Times all down more than -2%. Gold manages to ride of safe haven flow and jumps to new record high close to 1850 level against dollar. The current market is relatively calm though. Dollar and yen are generally firm but markets are stuck in tight range so far.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9821; (P) 0.9880; (R1) 0.9961; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains cautiously on the upside for a retest on 1.0009 resistance. As noted before, consolidations from 1.0009 might have completed at 0.9774 already. Break of 1.0009 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9406. Also, sustained trading above 0.9912 resistance will confirm double bottom reversal pattern (0.9444, 0.94056) and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. On the downside, below 0.9847 minor support will turn bias neutral and will extend the consolidation from 1.0009. But even in case of another fall, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9741 support holds.

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Special Reports

Evaluation Of QE2 And Preview Of Possible QE3 Ahead Of Jackson Hole Symposium

The next major event in the US after the August FOMC meeting will be next Friday's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. After the Fed announced to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013 on August 9, the market has been increasingly speculating that Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal additional easing measures at the meeting next week. According to a CNBC survey done after the FOMC meeting, 46% of respondents said the Fed will resume QE, up from 19% in the July survey while 37% said the Fed will not do QE, down from 68% in July. Also, of those who believe the Fed will resume QE, the asset purchases are expected to average at 628B, up from 377B in July.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun 2.30% 2.20% 2.00%
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jul
0.10% 0.10%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jul
5.30% 5.60%
8:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul
0.2B 12.0B
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Jul
0.20% -0.70%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Jul
2.80% 3.10%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jul
0.20% -0.60%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jul
1.60% 1.30%
Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: Next Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 22 Aug.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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