Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Dollar Soft in Range, Eurozone CPI and US ADP Employment Watched Dollar remains soft while risk markets are firm on expectation that Fed will announce new stimulus measures in September. Though, the greenback is just staying in tight range against other major currencies while rally in stocks and commodities is not having much moment. DOW was merely up 20pts overnight and major Asian equity indices are up 1-2% only. Crude oil is facing some resistance around 89/90 level even though the CRB commodity index managed to close strongly above 340. Investors are still hesitating to commit to risk positions on concern of global recession as well as never-ending European debt crisis. Some volatility in the market is anticipated with Eurozone CPI estimate and US ADP employment report featured today. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 76.56; (P) 76.77; (R1) 76.94; More. USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range for the moment and intraday bias remains neutral. With 76.46 minor support intact, consolidation form 75.94 might still continue with another rise. Above 77.68 will turn bias to the upside for another rebound. But after all, even in that case, we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect and eventual downside breakout. On the downside, below 76.46 minor support will suggest that recovery from 75.94 has finished and turn bias back to the downside for this support first. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update	The Futures and Forex Expo Las Vegas, June 15-18, 2011 at Caesars Palace. Register now and prepare for three days that will get you on track for a profitable future! Register FREE today! Top trading expert speakers, analysts and exhibitors. Discover the Newest Comer to the market, analyze latest market trends explore different trading platforms, and explore a wide opportunity on future investments. The 9th ME Forex & Investment Summit 2011 World MoneyShow Toronto, September 8-10, 2011, at The Metro Toronto Convention Center. Your one-stop resource for the most comprehensive education, efficient research, and valuable advice. Register Free Today! World MoneyShow Vancouver, September 19-21, 2011, at The Vancouver Convention Center. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit - in 2011 and beyond. Register Free Today!
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jul 13.00% -1.40% -1.00% 23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -2.10% -3.50% -4.20% 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 4.70% 4.60% 4.60% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jul 0.70% 1.50% 1.10% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 1.29 1.48 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jul 49k 49K 48.4K 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul -0.10% 0.40% -0.50% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jul -1.10% -0.70% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -16.5 -16.6 -11.2 -11 09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 98.3 102 103.2 103 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -2.9 -0.5 1.1 1 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug 3.7 6 7.9 12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -15.3B -13.6B -8.9B 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul -0.30% 0.00% -0.30% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -1.20% 0.00% -2.20% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun -4.50% -4.90% -4.50% 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 52.5 59.5 18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6270 Cable’s rebound after yesterday’s euro-led selloff to 1.6255 has retained our consolidative view and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6337) and possibly previous support at 1.6385/87 is likely, however, break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6409) is needed to signal the retreat from 1.6455 (yesterday’s high) has ended and bring test of 1.6420. Looking ahead, only breach of this level would retain bullishness for another leg of rebound from 1.6207 to bring test of 1.6455 first. Read more... Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8080 Despite yesterday’s rebound from 0.8121 to 0.8233, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.8240, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and another corrective fall to said support at 0.8121 would be seen, below would bring retracement to 0.8105/10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7892-0.8240), however, reckon renewed buying interest should emerge above 0.8066/67 (50% Fibonacci retracement and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) and bring another rise later. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Orders and Options Watch
European Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: Despite falling to 1.4385 yesterday on soft EMU data, euro found demand from sovereign names below 1.4400 level and has rebounded since, bids from same parties re-appeared this morning again around 1.4420. As traders await the release of eurozone employment data (starting 7:55GMT) and U.S. ADP employment change (12:15GMT), order books are a bit light with only offers from Asian CB reported at 1.4470-80 and 1.4500. On the downside, first stops are tipped at 1.4410 with more stops seen below yesterday’s low at 1.4385, 1.4360 and mixture of bids and stops remain at 1.4320-30. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Coundown To Nonfarm Payrolls Begins With ADP Employment Weak Confidence Indicators Keep Risk Appetite Pinned Back FOMC Strike Dovish Tone, Japanese Data Disappoints Inflation Fall Would Trigger ECB U-Turn U.S. FOMC Members Discuss Tools Available to Increase Stimulus if Economy Needs More Help Fundamental Update: FOMC Minutes of Aug. 9 Meeting August Minutes Highlight Growing Divide at the Fed Three Interesting Papers from Jackson Hole Technical Highlights Anticipating Resistance For The GBP/USD At The 1.6350-1.6380 Zone The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD. USD/CAD Bull Flag Or Falling Wedge? The Daily Wave Analysis

Euro Reversing after Poor Italy Bond Auction

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Euro Reversing after Poor Italy Bond Auction, Poor Confidence; FOMC Minutes Next Euro was sharply lower earlier today as markets were pretty disappointed by bond auction in Italy. Italy managed to sell EUR 7.75b of three-year and ten-year bonds today. That's close to the top end of EUR 6-8b target. However, the bid-to-cover ratio for 10 year bond was merely at 1.27, notably lower than the year's average of 1.4. Yield managed to drop from 5.77% to 5.22% but that was largely due to ECB buying with the Securities Market Program earlier this month. Without that, markets expect yield to easily rise above 6%. Investors are still in deep concern that it will get harder ahead for Italy to draw funds from the market for it's EUR 1.9T debt burden. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4468; (P) 1.4508 (R1) 1.4551; More. EUR/USD dips sharply to as low as 1.4383 after it struggled to take out 1.4537 resistance decisively. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus back on 1.4328 minor support. Break there will indicate that recent consolidations from 1.4939 is still in progress and should have started another falling leg. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for 1.4054 support first. Break will target 1.3837 support next. On the upside, note that decisive break of 1.4577 resistance will revive that case that EUR/USD is starting to breakout from recent consolidation from 1.4939 and should target 1.4695 resistance for more evidence. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update	The Futures and Forex Expo Las Vegas, June 15-18, 2011 at Caesars Palace. Register now and prepare for three days that will get you on track for a profitable future! Register FREE today! Top trading expert speakers, analysts and exhibitors. Discover the Newest Comer to the market, analyze latest market trends explore different trading platforms, and explore a wide opportunity on future investments. The 9th ME Forex & Investment Summit 2011 World MoneyShow Toronto, September 8-10, 2011, at The Metro Toronto Convention Center. Your one-stop resource for the most comprehensive education, efficient research, and valuable advice. Register Free Today! World MoneyShow Vancouver, September 19-21, 2011, at The Vancouver Convention Center. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit - in 2011 and beyond. Register Free Today!
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jul 13.00% -1.40% -1.00% 23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -2.10% -3.50% -4.20% 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 4.70% 4.60% 4.60% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jul 0.70% 1.50% 1.10% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 1.29 1.48 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jul 49k 49K 48.4K 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul -0.10% 0.40% -0.50% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jul -1.10% -0.70% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -16.5 -16.6 -11.2 -11 09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 98.3 102 103.2 103 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -2.9 -0.5 1.1 1 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug 3.7 6 7.9 12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -15.3B -13.6B -8.9B 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul -0.30% 0.00% -0.30% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -1.20% 0.00% -2.20% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun -4.50% -4.90% -4.50% 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 52.5 59.5 18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8080 Despite intra-day rebound from 0.8121, a break of yesterday’s high of 0.8240 is needed to signal recent rise from record low of 0.7068 has resumed and extend gain to 0.8247, then another previous resistance at 0.8278, however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and upside should be limited to 0.8300, risk has increased for a correction later. Read more... Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Target met and buy again at 1.0550 As aussie has eased after intra-day rise to 1.0686, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.0600 is likely, however, previous resistance at 1.0535 should hold and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the upmove from 0.9927 for a stronger retracement of the fall from 1.1081 to 1.0700 but reckon resistance at 1.0785-90 would hold from here. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights London Session: European Problems Get More Complicated FOMC Minutes May Provide Early Clues To September's Crucial Fed Meeting Aussie Building Approvals Rise In July, But Weaker Than Expected Euro Slightly Higher As Sentiment On Risk Improves Japanese Unemployment Rises, But Equity Markets Firm Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day Daily FX Report. GBPUSD - A Break Of A 1.6465 - 1.6364 Range? Move In GBPUSD Implies A Break In Short-Term Uptrend May Follow

forexlive ENewsletter

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• EU’s Barroso: Urges euro governments to act quickly on July 21 aggrements
• BOE Data Shows Vast Majority July Gilt Buying Domestic
• Analysis: Plunging EMU Economic Morale Flags Anemic 3Q Growth
• ITALY DATA: August business confidence rose to 99.9..
• EMU DATA: AUG ECON SENT INDEX DOWN TO +98.3 FROM JUL.
• EMU DATA: AUG BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX +0.07, JUL REV..
• Ozz finds some support around Monday’s Sydney highs
• Euro zone economic sentiment falls to 98.3 in August
• Where are next bunch of frickin stops?
• UK July Mortgage Approvals Highest Since May 2010
• UK DATA: UK July mortgageg approvals 49,239 vs 48500.
• Senior German Conservative lawmaker Meister against EFSF being used to help banks directly, only aid for euro member states
• BK of Italy sees deficit/GDP at 3.8% in 2011, 1.3% in 2012, -0.2% in 2013
• USD/CHF down on day; buy orders noted
• FX option expiries for todays 14:00 GMT cut
• Bk of Italy’s Visco: Changes to austerity package should limit increase in new taxes, raise structural measures
• S&P: Slow growth increases risk of double dip in Europe
• Market seems as confused as me
• FRANCE DATA: May-July sa housing starts -3.8% q/q;…
• EBA Calls For Direct EFSF Bank Lending, More Capital – Press

EU’s Barroso: Urges euro governments to act quickly on July 21 aggrements Posted: Must find rapid agreement on economic governance laws Time’s a wastin pumpkins!! Stops through 1.4420 give out and we’re down at 1.4400.

BOE Data Shows Vast Majority July Gilt Buying Domestic Posted: –UK Banks Sell Substantial Amount Foreign Govt Debt In July LONDON (MNI) – The vast majority of gilt purchases in July came from domestic institutions with overseas institutions making only negligible net purchases on the month, Bank of England data show. UK financial institutions increased their holdings of Gilts by stg8.074bn in July, a sharper [...]

Analysis: Plunging EMU Economic Morale Flags Anemic 3Q Growth Posted: August — MNI analysts survey — July Revised from lowest median highest ———————————————————————– Econ Sentiment 98.3 99.5 100.0 102.1 103.0 103.2 Industry -2.9 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 Services 3.7 2.0 6.0 7.0 7.9 — Consumers -16.5 na na na -11.2 — Retail -8.7 na na na -3.6 -3.5 Construction -23.3 na na na -24.3 [...]

ITALY DATA: August business confidence rose to 99.9.. Posted: ITALY DATA: August business confidence rose to 99.9 from 98.8 in July, on rising order expectations. Manufacturing and production price outlooks drop slightly, while inventory levels remain the same. ISTAT revised July’s SA index to 98.8 (up from 98.5)

EMU DATA: AUG ECON SENT INDEX DOWN TO +98.3 FROM JUL. Posted: EMU DATA: AUG ECON SENT INDEX DOWN TO +98.3 FROM JUL +103.0 (+103.2) –EMU Aug econ sentiment below MNI survey fcast median (104.0) –EMU Aug consumer confidence down to -16.5, above expected (-16.6) –EMU Aug industry confidence down to -2.9, below expected (-2.0) –EMU Aug services confidence down to +3.7 vs Jul +7.9 –EMU Aug [...]

EMU DATA: AUG BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX +0.07, JUL REV.. Posted: EMU DATA: AUG BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX +0.07, JUL REV +0.44 (+0.45)

Ozz finds some support around Monday’s Sydney highs Posted: Mixed flows this morning on the ozzie with macro names the early sellers, but the move slowed down by UK and Australian fund buying in the 1.0640′s after a brief look at 1.0634 which was yesterday’s session high in Sydney. Talk of some offers at 1.0660 so far halting any rally, ahead of more at 1.0675/80. Some [...]

Euro zone economic sentiment falls to 98.3 in August Posted: From revised 103.0 in July, weaker than median Reuters’ poll of 100.5. EUR/USD up at 1.4435 having managed a bounce off the 10 dma at 1.4424. Who would have thunk it? You just can’t beat the old 10 dma is what I say……yer right

Where are next bunch of frickin stops? Posted: In EUR/USD, ofcourse. I’d hazard a guess through 1.4420. 1.4424 is the 10 dma. Guess the reports of “large” month end dollar demand are resonating. How I loathe month end. Hedge funds, Eastern Europeans among notable sellers this morning.

UK July Mortgage Approvals Highest Since May 2010 Posted: –BOE: UK Jul House Purchase Approvals 49,239 Vs 48,500 Jun –BOE: UK Jul Net Mortgage Lending Stg0.671Bn Vs Stg0.001Bn Jun –BOE Jul M4 Ex-IOFCS Up 0.6% M/M; Up 2.2% 4Q/12M Annualised –BOE: UK Jul Net Consumer Credit Stg0.2Bln; Vs STG0.4MLN Jun London (MNI) – Mortgage approvals rose further in July, hitting their highest level since [...]

UK DATA: UK July mortgageg approvals 49,239 vs 48500. Posted: UK DATA: UK July mortgageg approvals 49,239 vs 48500 in June, the BOE says, the highest since June 2010. Mortgage lending rose 700 mn in July.

Senior German Conservative lawmaker Meister against EFSF being used to help banks directly, only aid for euro member states Posted:

BK of Italy sees deficit/GDP at 3.8% in 2011, 1.3% in 2012, -0.2% in 2013 Posted: Asumming austerity measures take effect. Sees debt/GDP at 119.9% in 2011, 117.8% in 2012, 113.6% in 2013, 108.8% in 2014 Asumming austerity plan takes effect. EUR/USD seeing accelerated losses. Stops tripped through 1.4470 and we’ve quickly reached aforementioned buy orders around 1.4450. BOI’s Visco won’t have helped the single currency any in warning of weaker [...]

USD/CHF down on day; buy orders noted Posted: USD/CHF has given ground this morning, presently at .8130 from around .8180 when I parked my bum. Talk has buy orders now gathering/clustering down at .8090/00. .8090 is the 55 dma.

FX option expiries for todays 14:00 GMT cut Posted: For all you saddos who think they have some sort of magnetic effect EUR/USD: 1.4500, 1.4450 USD/JPY: 77.00, 76.50, 75.50, 78.00 EUR/JPY: 111.00, 112.00 GBP/USD: 1.6300, 1.6500 AUD/USD: 1.0600, 1.0500, 1.0450 AUD/NZD: 1.2650 AUD/JPY: 81.00

Bk of Italy’s Visco: Changes to austerity package should limit increase in new taxes, raise structural measures Posted: Budget adjustments will inevitably have restrictive effects on the economy Italy 2011 GDP growth could be below 1% and even weaker in 2012 Weaker growth would impact budget, make it more difficult to reach balance and cut debt (and there’s the rub folks!!!) Meanwhile, Italian June retail sales -0.2% m/m, -1.2% y/y, weaker than median [...]

S&P: Slow growth increases risk of double dip in Europe Posted: Yer, that would do it. EUR/USD sits at 1.4488. Talk now of stops through 1.4470. Kinda weird. What is it, stops every bloody 10 pips? Faintly ridiculous.

Market seems as confused as me Posted: EUR/USD came under some early selling pressure, with hedge funds notable sellers of both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. Tripped stops through 1.4490 and 1.4480 on the way to session low 1.4477. We’ve subsequently bounced back to 1.4500 as European stocks get off to a healthy start, extending gains in early trade. A big part of my [...]

FRANCE DATA: May-July sa housing starts -3.8% q/q;… Posted: FRANCE DATA: May-July sa housing starts -3.8% q/q; nsa +7.9% y/y - May-July sa housing permits +5.3% q/q, nsa +10.0% y/y

EBA Calls For Direct EFSF Bank Lending, More Capital – Press Posted: FRANKFURT (MNI) – European Banking Authority Chairman Andrea Enria has called on European finance and economic ministers to allow the European bailout fund to lend directly to weak banks, the Financial Times Deutschland reported Tuesday. Thus far, the EFSF can only lend to countries, which can then pass on funds to their banks. Direct lending [...]