Gold Free Fall Continues, Euro Steady


Gold Free Fall
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Chinese Data Weigh on Sentiments, Gold Free Fall Continues, Euro Steady

Weak Chinese growth data was the main theme today which drove stock markets generally lower. US futures also point to lower opening after as Empire state manufacturing index dropped much more than expected to 3.1 in April. The biggest movers today were found in commodities where gold dropped over -5.5% at the time of writing and breached 1400 handle to as low as 1385. Silver was even worse by failing over -8.2% and even breached 23. Crude oil isn't much better as it broke 90 handle. In the currency markets, Aussie and Kiwi were hardest hit on risk aversion as well as free-falling commodity prices. Yen extended rebound from last week's short term bottom. European majors continue to be relatively steady against the greenback.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2413; (P) 1.2452; (R1) 1.2518; More.....
EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.2587 in early US session and the break of 1.2563 confirmed resumption of rebound from 1.2218. Intraday bias is back to the upside and break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3189 to 1.2218 at 1.2589 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2818 and above. On the downside, break of 1.2364 is needed to indicate completion of the rebound or near term outlook will stay mildly bullish.
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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr 2.10% 1.70%
01:30 AUD Home Loans Feb 2.00% 1.50% -1.50% -0.30%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Mar 8.90% 10.00% 9.90%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Mar 12.60% 12.50% 12.30%
02:00 CNY Real GDP Y/Y Q1 7.70% 8.00% 7.90%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb F 0.60% -0.10% -0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 12.0B 9.7B 9.0B
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Apr 3.1 7 9.24
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb -17.8B $40.0B $25.7B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 45 44
       
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although euro slipped to an intra-day low of 1.3036 on renewed concerns over Cyprus and stops below 1.3040 were tripped, cross-related demand contained downside and lifted the single currency in New York morning. At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.3100 and also at 1.3120-30, mixture of offers and stops is still seen at 1.3150-60, some option defensive offers are expected around 1.3190-00 (related to 1.3200 barrier). On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3030-35 and further out at 1.3000-10, stops are placed below 1.2985-90 with fresh demand likely to emerge around 1.2950-60, sizeable stops are tipped below 1.2940.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5375

Despite intra-day initial brief bounce to 1.5386, as cable failed to close above the upper Kumo and dropped again, suggesting a temporary top is possibly formed at 1.5412 last week, hence consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove, below previous support at 1.5294 would add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.5250-60
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9230

Despite intra-day rebound from 0.9265 to 0.9313, as cable has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.9332-40, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for recent decline from 0.9567 top to resume and bring a stronger retracement of the rise from 0.9024 to 0.9259 (previous resistance), however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9230-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9024-0.9567) and bring rebound later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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